Bortnikov’s diplomatic statement is not in Yerevan’s favor — Nikolay Silaev

Speaking with Alpha News, senior research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies Nikolay Silaev commented on Russian FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov’s statement that NATO wants to deploy its mission in the South Caucasus under the guise of peacekeepers.

“The decision of the Armenian authorities and the readiness of NATO countries are enough to deploy NATO peacekeepers. It does not have to be connected with escalation. What is interesting is that Bortnikov placed the responsibility for delaying the talks on the West. In Bortnikov’s view, it is Yerevan that is delaying the talks as the West insists on it, and the West is trying to lead the process of the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization. That is, there is most likely a certain scheme to delay the talks, then an escalation or threats from Baku are possible, and then the introduction of peacekeepers is probably planned.

Although it is not entirely clear how they will be introduced under the auspices of the UN, given that in this case, it requires a vote of the Security Council. And it is not certain that the Security Council will vote for this decision. According to Bortnikov’s statement, Armenia is delaying the talks, but what is important here is that this diplomatic statement is not in Yerevan’s favor. If I were in the official Yerevan, I would be alarmed by this,” Silaev said.

Touching upon the Azerbaijani position in the talks, the expert noted that Azerbaijan wants to push as far as possible, trying to get as much as possible.

“We do not know what exact demands are being put forward at the negotiations and whether the agenda of these negotiations is changing as Azerbaijan hardens its public stance.

I completely agree that it is difficult to expect a major diplomatic result and success in signing a peace agreement if new demands are constantly being made publicly. But Azerbaijan probably believes that while there are conditions for making these demands, they should be made. Because it is possible that the conditions will not be so favorable later. Here we need to look at what is happening during the talks, and no one really knows what is happening there,” Silaev noted.

According to the expert, Armenian-Russian relations are slowly deteriorating.

“Armenian-Russian relations are moving towards a rupture at Yerevan’s initiative. It is clear that Yerevan both wants and fears this rupture. When the Armenian leaders say that they will remain in the EAEU for now but will join the EU at the first opportunity, it is clear that their ‘dream of youth’. Armenia is a sovereign state and can choose the direction of its foreign and domestic policy. But I think that if Armenia leaves the CSTO, there will be a downturn in the economic sphere, I would expect this,” Silaev concluded.