Cash flows and tourist visits are decreasing in Armenia
October 11 2024, 16:00
The macroeconomic indicators of the Armenian economy, which, especially in recent years, have significantly contributed to the high economic growth, are almost completely ineffective today. This is a reason for serious uncertainty regarding the further growth of the Armenian economy.
Among these indicators are cash flows and tourist visits. Both factors generated high domestic demand, which gradually affected the growth of other sectors of the economy, including trade, services, and the banking system, among others.
The net cash flow received through banks decreased 1.6 times in January-August 2024, and the inflow amounted to $267.8 million. At the same time, Russia is the leading country for transfers to Armenia, followed by the United States. The large difference in the indicator between the two leading countries shows the absolute advantage of Russia. When it comes to transfers from Armenia, the leading country here is the UAE, followed by Russia. Meanwhile, if you do not take into account re-export, Russia is leading again.
We have a similar picture in terms of the number of tourists who visited Armenia in January-September 2024. Year-on-year, the indicator decreased by almost 7%. At the same time, studying these figures, it becomes clear that 43% of tourists who visited Armenia are from Russia only.
The above-mentioned indicators are only a small part of weakening external factors, which caused slow economic growth in Armenia for a long time. It is no coincidence that the government has provided for 5.6% economic growth in the draft budget for 2025, while the program for 2022-2026 provides for 7%, and under favorable external conditions, for 9% economic growth.
It is clear that the external conditions are not positive at the moment; however, the failure to reach even the 7% target actually indicates a failed economic policy.