Turkey has achieved its goals of overthrowing Assad government – Georgi Asatryan

Speaking with Alpha News, Georgi Asatryan, Research Fellow at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics and Expert for Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), commented on the future that awaits Syria, the Ankara factor in the Syrian issue, the possibility of Israel striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, and how Turkey’s success in Syria will impact the South Caucasus region.

“When Islamic parties and radical Islamist groups come to power, the situation does not necessarily lead to chaos and civil war. There are examples in history of successful Islamic revolutions, after which the regime undergoes some transformations, and, basically, it manages to establish quite effective functional control over the territory. One such example is Iran, which still exists effectively. Another example is today’s Afghanistan, represented by the Taliban, a regime that has transformed and is already more rationally trying to govern the territory of Afghanistan.

In Syria, the situation has certain nuances. But I believe this regime will also transform in an attempt to establish tight control over the entire territory of Syria. In most cases, there is a chance that they will succeed, because they have support, primarily from Turkey and from other players. The people of Syria are tired of the war; there is not enough energy for a new round of civil war. Islamization awaits Syria. Islamization may not be as deep as in Afghanistan or other countries, but the regime will be Islamized; there will be political Islam,” Asatryan said.

“This radical opposition, which came to power today, actually exercised power over quite significant territories and provinces in Syria without any control. There, power belonged not to Assad, but to opposition groups, which had quite serious support. Therefore, from this we conclude that the general public in these provinces accept the order dictated by this opposition, which is now in power all over Syria. As for the secular part of Syria, those provinces that were under Assad’s power will not resist; they do not have the strength to resist. A new social order will be imposed on them, which will be dominant in Syria,” Asatryan noted.

The expert noted that there are no factors that can stop Turkey from achieving its goals in the South Caucasus.

“Turkey is quite actively and effectively achieving its goals in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, so I believe there are no factors that can stop it from achieving its goals in the South Caucasus as well. Turkey is expanding its influence in the South Caucasus and the Middle East. And I do not see it meeting any serious resistance,” Asatryan noted.

Speaking about the possible signing of a strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran, the expert noted that this would consolidate the achievements in bilateral relations between Russia and Iran over the past few years.

“This agreement was prepared quite a long time ago; there were very intensive talks between the parties. Overall, in my opinion, it meets the interests of both parties. Now there is quite active cooperation between these countries in both the military and political areas. I believe this is a logical continuation of the processes that we have seen in recent years. We must also keep in mind the political processes within Iran; they are also quite difficult. But in general, this is a consolidation of the achievements in bilateral relations between Russia and Iran over the past few years. This is quite an excellent step in deepening these relations, including in the military and political areas,” Asatryan concluded.