Armenia’s withdrawal from EAEU will entail severe economic and social consequences — Nikolay Silaev

Speaking with Alpha News, Nikolay Silaev, a senior research fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, commented on Armenia’s potential consequences should Yerevan violate the EAEU treaty, the recent shelling by Azerbaijan on Armenian territory, and the significance of visits by Israeli and Turkish leaders to Azerbaijan.

“In addition to the measures that can be taken and will be taken by the EAEU, I would not rule out unilateral decisions by Russia aimed at protecting the markets of the EAEU countries from possible European economic expansion. Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner, and the sharp rise in Armenia’s foreign trade in recent years is due to Armenian-Russian trade cooperation. The inflow of money into the Armenian state budget is also directly linked to this cooperation. Many Armenian companies earn money on the Russian market. And, of course, the withdrawal from the Eurasian Union and the rejection of the Russian market will entail severe economic and social consequences that cannot be compensated for by any European assistance,” Silaev said.

According to the expert, neither the European Union nor NATO are ready to take responsibility for Armenia’s security and economic well-being.

“I believe that somewhere around 2023-2024, the Armenian leadership had an illusion that a forced rapprochement with the European Union and NATO was possible—and, of course, to the detriment of the alliances in which Armenia cooperates with Russia. But it soon became clear that there would be no quick rapprochement and that neither the EU nor NATO—individually or collectively—were ready to take responsibility for ensuring Armenia’s security and economic well-being. But by early 2024, so much had already been said by official Yerevan that it became difficult to turn back, and now the Armenian leadership is trying to pursue a multi-vector policy, which is actually characteristic of Armenia. However, this multi-vector policy is very difficult, firstly, due to the uncertainty in relations with the main ally, and secondly, due to the level of confrontation that currently exists between Russia and the West,” Silaev noted.

Addressing Azerbaijan’s recent shelling of Armenian territory, the expert noted that this is explained by Azerbaijan’s confidence that forceful pressure on Armenia produces diplomatic results.

“I believe Azerbaijan is trying to create an environment in which Armenia will exist in a state of heightened anxiety. Azerbaijan has seen—and more than once—that forceful pressure on Armenia produces diplomatic results. It is clear that progress on a peace agreement has stalled. And I don’t think that Baku really needs a peace agreement. Rather, Armenia is the one that needs it now. And Baku prefers to maintain the current state of bilateral relations, in which Azerbaijan remains unrestricted by any formal agreement. It is important for Azerbaijan to continue forceful pressure on Armenia. Therefore, nothing can be ruled out and the risk of escalation of a new conflict remains,” Silaev said.