Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey – a new South Caucasus alliance against Russia

The fall of Artsakh is being deeply felt, particularly on the front lines of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Baku considers it more pointless to maneuver between the positions of Moscow and Tehran, and therefore it is attacking Russia. The reason for the latest escalation of relations was the mass detention of more than 50 alleged members of an Azerbaijani organized crime group in Yekaterinburg, who were suspected of being involved in a murder that occurred more than 20 years ago. After the deaths of two suspects, Russian concerts were canceled in Azerbaijan, Vice Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk’s visit was canceled, the editor-in-chief of Sputnik Azerbaijan was arrested, and searches are ongoing at the editorial office.

Moreover, Britain’s proxy in the region—the regime of Ilham Aliyev—is not only targeting Moscow but has also turned its sights on Tehran. The local press is full of openly provocative materials against Iran and, in particular, against Iran’s spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei. “The main enemy of Azerbaijan in Iran is the Supreme Leader himself, Ali Khamenei, a man who has consistently pursued a hostile policy towards Baku for many years,” writes Caliber, an Azerbaijani publication affiliated with the Ministry of Defense.

The escalation threatens to not only sever diplomatic ties but also stall—or even dismantle—transport and logistics projects intended to link Russia and Iran via Azerbaijani territory.

The next step could be the formation of a large anti-Russian triad in the South Caucasus: Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. It is important for Ankara to involve Armenia in its anti-Russian project, one that serves British geopolitical interests by creating a bloc explicitly opposed to Russia and Iran.

Don’t you believe that such an idea exists? In 2023, during the Washington negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, US State Department official Louis Bono stated, “The United States seeks to ensure that the parties resolve their differences, live together, strengthen economic ties, and even promote collective security in the region.” This statement clearly outlines a strategic plan to establish a military-political alliance in the region, with Turkey acting as a moderator.

It is possible that the region is heading in this direction, but what is important for the Republic of Armenia is that the country is joining this anti-Russian Turkic regional alliance without any security guarantees. The Turks, Americans, British, French, and Europeans in general are ready to turn Yerevan against Russia, but no one will promise that Armenia will remain intact. This means that once Yerevan has played its role in the global anti-Russian game, the Armenia project may be closed.

As for the Russian-Azerbaijani confrontation, we can already say with confidence that by losing Armenia, Russia did not gain Azerbaijan as an ally. Russia has lost both South Caucasus republics.

Think about it…