Can Aliyev forbid Iran and Russia from using Armenia’s communications?

It appears that, in order to secure economic benefits for Iran and Russia, Armenia had to surrender Artsakh and the corridor through Syunik. This conclusion can be drawn from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement during an interview with Fox News.

Pashinyan said that the new transit corridor, the Trump Route, would benefit both Russia and Iran. “Iran would have access through a railway from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea. And Russia and Iran will have the opportunity to have a railway connection between the two countries,” Pashinyan said.

As a reminder, the statement signed on August 8 by Armenia, the United States, and Azerbaijan includes two paragraphs dedicated to the corridor through Armenia. The third and fourth paragraphs state: “This includes unimpeded connectivity between the main part of the Republic of Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the territory of the Republic of Armenia with reciprocal benefits for international and intra-state connectivity for the Republic of Armenia. (…) The Republic of Armenia will work with the United States of America and mutually determined third parties, to set forth a framework for the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) connectivity project in the territory of the Republic of Armenia.

What’s significant here is that the statement concerning the corridor through Armenian territory is trilateral—meaning the corridor is being ceded not just to the United States, but also to Azerbaijan. By allowing this clause to be included in a trilateral declaration, rather than in the package of bilateral documents signed on August 8 between Yerevan and Washington, Pashinyan effectively made Ilham Aliyev a stakeholder in the communications infrastructure passing through Armenia.

The day before, Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure David Khudatyan said that Armenia and Azerbaijan would establish working groups as part of the agreement on the unblocking of communications. Khudatyan declined to answer the question about control and customs procedures but assured that the road would be under Armenian jurisdiction “with all the technical and substantive issues that arise from this.”

Given all of the above, a legitimate question arises: can Pashinyan guarantee that Baku will not demand that Russia and Iran be denied access to communications in Armenia? Aliyev may make such a request—not only due to deteriorating relations with Tehran and Moscow—but also because he is a signatory to the agreement with Pashinyan concerning communications through Armenian territory.

Think about it…