Who is Aliyev preparing to fight?

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking in the occupied territory of Artsakh, once again emphasized the need to be ready for war “at any moment.” He also noted that Azerbaijan’s defense capabilities are being modernized and strengthened. Remarkably, this statement was made not only in occupied Karvachar but also just a few weeks after a peace agreement was initialed between Baku and Yerevan. According to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his administration, this was “a major step toward ending the long-standing conflict.”

Aliyev’s remarks have sparked various interpretations in both Armenia and Russia. Notably, assessments from both Yerevan and Moscow suggest that Aliyev may be hinting at a military conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia. This is precisely the reaction Ilham Aliyev seeks.

But what is really happening?

Aliyev fully understands that Azerbaijan cannot confront Moscow in a conflict of the scale currently unfolding in Ukraine. However, this kind of rhetoric is necessary for Aliyev to gain broad military support from Western globalists. And today, they are willing to assist almost anyone if there is even a slim chance of opening a second front against Russia.

It is also clear that Aliyev is counting on significant military support from Israel. Israel, in turn, hopes that a strengthened Azerbaijan will act more boldly against Iran. That’s why the Jewish lobby helped push through the 907th amendment to the “Freedom Act” on August 8, which prohibited direct US aid to the Azerbaijani government.

However, Aliyev also realizes that he cannot currently compete militarily with Iran. As with Moscow, Ilham Aliyev would prefer to attack Tehran only when armies from a dozen other countries join him against the Russians and Iranians.

In other words, Aliyev issues threats of war without naming a specific enemy—allowing him to maintain support from both the West and Israel. Yet he clearly understands that the weakest link among his opponents is Armenia, led by Pashinyan. By intimidating Pashinyan, he can extract endless concessions from Armenia. That’s why Aliyev issues threats without naming a target.

Pashinyan appears to have understood Aliyev’s strategy, hence the statements about reducing defense spending, the potential de jure withdrawal from the CSTO, and protests against the Russian 102nd military base in Gyumri. The dismantling of Armenia’s defense capabilities has not stopped since May 8, 2018…

Think about it…