Russia cannot leave South Caucasus, it is geographically present there – Ivan Timofeev

Speaking with Alpha News, Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, commented on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China, Russia-US negotiations, and the agreements reached between Yerevan and Baku with mediation from US President Donald Trump in Washington—and how these developments affect Russia’s position in the South Caucasus.

“The SCO brings together major economies and emerging powers. It’s not a Western institution, but its agenda is non-confrontational. It was created to address regional issues, both economic and security-related. China emphasizes the economic aspect, while Russia focuses on security. The organization is expanding, and its summits are held at a high level. Although the SCO is not comparable to the EU or NATO, it is functional and has proven itself as a credible format,” Timofeev stated.

Commenting on the Russia–US negotiations in Alaska, Timofeev emphasized that the mere willingness to engage in dialogue is a breakthrough.

“The summit was positive, with some breakthrough moments. The readiness for dialogue marks a shift compared to the past three years. Previously, the US and EU expected Russia’s capitulation, now the approach has changed. The EU continues its old course, but its role is secondary. The main military support comes from the US. Ceasing hostilities is in Ukraine’s interest, as negotiations are inevitable, and delaying them could lead to worse terms,” he said.

Regarding Europe’s apparent preparations for war with Russia, Timofeev warned that any potential conflict would be most dangerous for Europe itself.

“Europe is making aggressive statements and investing heavily in its defense industry. Moscow sees this as a threat. A conflict with Russia could escalate severely, even to a nuclear level, which would be most dangerous for Europe and its NATO wing. There will be no ‘small victorious war’; it would be large and far from victorious for them,” he stressed.

Touching on the agreements between Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders brokered by Trump in Washington, Timofeev acknowledged the positive peacemaking approach of the American leader but questioned the long-term effectiveness.

“Trump is currently enthusiastic about peacemaking; he is trying to resolve as many conflicts as possible. That’s better than playing at war. But the question is effectiveness: the South Caucasus is a complex region. Peace initiatives and communication between leaders are good, but whether a sustainable long-term solution will emerge is uncertain. There are too many factors: public sentiment in Azerbaijan and Armenia differs, and the scars of war will linger. This isn’t a math problem that can be solved quickly. For the US, this region is just one of many interests, while Russia is geographically present and will inevitably assert itself,” he said.

“Russia will not leave the South Caucasus under any circumstances, as it is geographically part of the region. The US is advancing its agenda, but its durability is questionable. Iran is also present, and over time, the interests of Russia and Iran will become more visible. Russia maintains ties with all countries in the region,” the expert concluded.