Territories in exchange for negotiations – Pashinyan’s formula

History is repeating itself. Once again, the citizens of the Republic of Armenia are first learning about developments in the Armenia-Turkey negotiation process through Turkish sources—only later confirmed by the Armenian side.

When examining the negotiations directly, the timeline, frequency, and context of the meetings clearly suggest that the “normalization” of Armenian–Turkish relations is closely tied to Armenia’s concessions on the Azerbaijani front.

Concessions as a precondition

An analysis of the time intervals between the meetings shows that they often coincide with key events in which Armenia makes concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey. The sequence of events speaks for itself:

🔹July 2022–July 2024: The two-year pause in negotiations was only broken after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recognized Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan in Prague in October 2022, as well as after the ethnic cleansing in the NKR and the transfer of the Republic of Artsakh to full control of Azerbaijan, forcing the Armenian population to leave their historical homeland. For Ankara and Baku, this meant a “resolution” of the Karabakh conflict.

🔹July 2024–September 2025: The next meeting took place in the context of a trilateral meeting in Washington involving Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States, where Armenia both de facto and de jure acknowledged the OSCE Minsk Group’s irrelevance, signed an appeal for its dissolution, and once again reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s “territorial integrity.”

Thus, Turkey uses dialogue as a tool of encouragement, agreeing to meetings only after Armenia makes serious concessions. This creates an asymmetrical nature of negotiations, where one side constantly makes concessions while the other only agrees to talk. This is the implementation of Pashinyan’s “territories in exchange for negotiations” formula.

The destruction of Armenia’s security system

The policy of constant concessions—although it may be presented for propaganda purposes as a way to buy time or achieve peace—actually leads to the gradual dismantling of Armenia’s security system. The protective mechanisms and security zones that were previously in place to deter potential aggression are being systematically eroded. In this context, it can be argued that the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh has deprived Armenia of its strategic depth. The region, which has been a cornerstone of Armenia’s security system for decades, has now become a springboard for further pressure on Armenia.

Abandoning international guarantees

The dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group means that Armenia is abandoning the only international format that could have provided some balance and acted as a mediator in the event of an escalation. Yerevan is left alone with Baku and Ankara, relying only on hypothetical guarantees from its Western partners, which have no legal force. The “call to Donald Trump”, mentioned by the US President on August 8 during the signing of the trilateral declaration, should also be considered an element of hypothetical guarantees.

As a result, Armenia finds itself in a spiral of concessions, where each agreement essentially paves the way for new demands. Instead of strengthening security, this strategy makes Armenia more vulnerable.

In this context, attempts to “buy time” are not a tactical ploy, but a strategic mistake that could lead to further loss of sovereignty and even statehood. While Turkey and Azerbaijan are consistently pursuing their goals, Armenia is moving in the opposite direction, voluntarily depriving itself of its protective mechanisms.

Think about it…