And yet, Russia remains Armenia’s primary trade partner

Armenia’s foreign trade continues to decline. From January to July of this year, trade volumes dropped by 42% compared to the same period last year. Exports fell by 49.6%, while imports decreased by 35.8%.

This decline is particularly evident in specific product categories. The sharpest drop was recorded in the group of precious and semi-precious stones and metals, with exports down by 75.7% and imports by 77.5%.

It’s worth recalling that last year, Armenia’s economy was heavily influenced by large flows of gold re-exports, which significantly impacted the country’s foreign trade turnover. In January–July 2024, foreign trade grew by 95%, with imports rising by 79.1% and exports more than doubling. Today, those flows have ceased, which predictably led to the current negative indicators.

In light of these developments, several questions naturally arise: How manageable were those flows? How inclusive were the results they generated? To what extent were they capitalized to ensure long-term benefits? The “results” of that capitalization are now reflected in today’s statistics.

This also brings to mind the frequent speculation in previous periods about diversifying foreign trade. The sharp increase in trade flows with China and the UAE was clearly linked to gold re-exports. Could the temporary “trade channel” that emerged have been capitalized? At the very least, current statistics suggest otherwise. Trade turnover with the UAE has dropped by 67.9%, and with China by 12.5%.

Moreover, when examining the structure of Armenia’s foreign trade today—as in the past—it is clear that the majority of trade still involves Russia. While the share of trade with EU countries has slightly increased compared to the same period last year, it does not alter the overall picture.

One more point: although Russia occasionally lost its position among Armenia’s top three trading partners in previous periods, it has now regained that status.

The need for diversification is undeniable, but today, it is Russia that continues to strengthen its role as Armenia’s main trading partner.