Pashinyan needs a small victorious “war”

By the evening of October 15, Holy Etchmiadzin announced that the head of the Aragatsotn Diocese and 12 priests from the same diocese had been detained by security forces. The arrests were based on a statement made by the head of the Hovhannavank Church, Aram Asatryan, who claimed in an interview with Public Television on September 16 that he and other priests had been forced to participate in opposition protests in 2021. After that, one of the pro-government media outlets asked the Prosecutor General’s Office to conduct an investigation and, if necessary, initiate a criminal case.

Ahead of the elections to the Council of Elders of Vagharshapat—contested by nine opposition forces (one bloc and eight parties)—Nikol Pashinyan appears to be targeting the church in an effort to “defeat” it and secure electoral victory amid widespread public disappointment and shock. He needs to win over the church in order to win the elections, and he also needs to consolidate the state apparatus, which may become less loyal to the leader of the Civil Contract Party in the run-up to the National Assembly elections.

Apparently, the administrative resource has already been activated. On June 20, the Armenian government merged the communities of Vagharshapat and Khoy, forming an enlarged Vagharshapat community. Opposition representatives have been sounding the alarm, citing sources that claim up to 5,000 unregistered citizens—”dead souls”—have been added to the electoral rolls. Pashinyan believes this is not enough to win the elections, which is why he needs to mobilize his electorate with another show of “loud arrests.”

This is the essence of the “small victorious war.” This is why representatives of the Armenian Apostolic Church are being arrested today. However, the paradox is that by taking these actions, Pashinyan is giving too much importance to the upcoming elections for the Council of Elders in Vagharshapat. This should be a signal to the real opposition. It is important that the opposition forces do not work against each other but instead focus solely on fighting the Civil Contract and its subsidiary organization, the party led by Aram Sargsyan.

There is a real chance of defeating the Civil Contract in yet another community, and doing so before the parliamentary elections. The spiritual leaders of Holy Etchmiadzin need to make a choice: either they continue to pray and “play chess,” or they prepare to resist Pashinyan’s “crusade against the church.”

Think about it…