Stabilization of new logistics and energy communications in South Caucasus are far from complete – Andrey Areshev

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist Andrey Areshev commented on Western and Turkish logistics and energy projects in the South Caucasus region, as well as Russia’s response, during a roundtable discussion titled “Energy and Transport in the South Caucasus in a Geopolitical Perspective,” organized by the Caucasus Studies Sector at the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

“It seems to me that the stabilization of new logistics and energy links in the South Caucasus, the Caucasus-Caspian region, and Central Asia is far from complete. We are currently witnessing contradictory processes, largely chaotic in nature, related to geopolitical changes, foreign policy upheavals, and global shifts in the regional balance. There are obvious shifts in Russian influence in the Caucasus, and at the same time, there are new promising projects at different stages of implementation: from the ‘Trump Route’ to the recent sweeping statements by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about large-scale investments in the region’s energy sector. All of this is creating chaos and a lack of stability and predictability in the near future,” the expert said.

According to Areshev, Russia will closely monitor developments and assess projects in terms of their benefits and the challenges posed by the West and Turkey in the South Caucasus.

“One illustrative example is the developing difficult situation with Georgian-Azerbaijani transit. Georgia and Azerbaijan, seemingly such close allies, are experiencing serious disruptions: trucks are sitting idle, and these problems are escalating to the interstate level. Yet this corridor was supposed to serve as the main logistics route for Central Asia. Based on this example, one can assume that the implementation of other widely announced projects will also not be so straightforward, and various pitfalls are possible. As for Russia, I believe our country will closely monitor developments and assess projects based on their benefits for Russian interests—primarily economic ones—or, conversely, the challenges they pose for Russia beyond the Caucasus Mountains,” Areshev said.