Yerevan may switch to purchasing electricity from Turkey and Azerbaijan – Vahe Davtyan

Speaking with Alpha News, Professor Vahe Davtyan, Senior Researcher in the Caucasus Studies Sector at the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented on Armenia’s selection of a new nuclear power plant project on the sidelines of the roundtable discussion “Energy and Transport in the South Caucasus in a Geopolitical Perspective.”

“Time is short. I believe construction of a new nuclear power unit must begin now so that by 2036, when the existing unit is decommissioned, the new one will be ready and synchronously connected to the grid. Unfortunately, today the Armenian government is stating that the decision to build a small modular nuclear reactor has been made, meaning the decision on the model is final. But there is no decision regarding Armenia’s partner: Russia or the United States. At the same time, we see periodic announcements of proposals coming from the People’s Republic of China, France, and the Republic of Korea.

However, it is quite clear that the most substantial proposal at the moment is that of the state corporation Rosatom, which has presented two options: a large nuclear power unit with a capacity of 1200 MW and the RITM-200N, a small modular reactor (SMR) with a capacity of 50-60 MW. The Russian side has demonstrated a willingness to cooperate with Armenia in both conventional nuclear energy and small-scale nuclear energy. Given Armenia’s strategic goal of establishing a North-South electricity corridor, large-scale generating capacity is needed to build an effective export-oriented energy policy. A small modular reactor will not be able to meet the export needs embedded in Armenia’s energy strategy,” Davtyan said.

He also commented on the opinions of several experts who believe it is likely that the new nuclear power plant in Armenia will not be built at all, which will force Yerevan to switch to large-scale electricity purchases and energy cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

“Hypothetically, I don’t rule it out. Firstly, the Armenian electricity market has been liberalized since February 1, 2022, including foreign electricity trade. This means that Armenia, by granting the appropriate licenses to individual entities, can freely import electricity from cheaper markets. It must be acknowledged that electricity generated in Armenia is high in cost and uncompetitive compared to Georgian electricity, and potentially even compared to Turkish electricity. In terms of institutional architecture, the market is poised to become a net importer—that’s, unfortunately, the first point. Second, given the rhetoric of the Armenian authorities that the strategic goals of creating 1,000 MW of photovoltaic capacity by 2030, have been achieved four years early. Pashinyan himself stated that solar power plants have been built with a capacity greater than that of two nuclear power units. This reflects a certain rethinking of the long-term development of Armenia’s nuclear energy sector. Therefore, such a risk certainly exists. And the issue is already rooted in geopolitical realities, because, from a technical and economic perspective, construction of the new nuclear power unit was supposed to begin at least in 2019,” Davtyan noted.