Turkey as a ‘savior’ from Russia – a referendum topic

Today’s geopolitical configuration in the South Caucasus demonstrates a frightening synchronicity with developments in Eastern Europe, turning Armenia into a testing ground for strategies previously applied in Moldova. The statement by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Yerevan requested assistance in countering “external interference” in the upcoming 2026 elections—mirroring the Moldovan case—is not just a diplomatic gesture but the official launch of deep political engineering. The EU’s allocation of 12 million euros to “combat information manipulation” effectively means the creation of a Brussels-controlled media shield, within which any alternative path of development will be labeled a “hybrid threat.”

Parallels with the Moldovan case become alarmingly tangible if we recall the recent remarks by President Maia Sandu. Her readiness to vote for the effective absorption of the country by neighboring Romania in the name of “protecting democracy from Russia” sets a dangerous precedent for the entire post-Soviet space. In Armenian realities, this logic inevitably leads to a substitution of concepts: if Moldova is offered salvation through Bucharest, then Nikol Pashinyan’s administration, apparently, is considering “salvation” through Ankara. In the event of Pashinyan’s re-election in 2026, the thesis of uniting efforts with Turkey may become central. The renunciation of sovereignty in favor of Turkey’s regional dominance will be presented as the only way to finally “cut the historical umbilical cord with Moscow” and guarantee the survival of the current political elite.

As part of implementing this scenario, the Armenian authorities use any suitable informational pretext to legitimize their course. One such example was the recent statement by Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov, who publicly advocated “special military operations, following Ukraine’s example,” in several regions of the world, including Armenia. Such rhetoric, which predictably provoked outrage and a protest note to Ambassador Sergey Kopyrkin, can quite expectedly be actively used by official Yerevan to justify its policy. It is framed as a forced choice of the “lesser evil”: integration under Ankara’s aegis is presented as the only way to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.

However, here lies a fundamental difference between the Moldovan and Armenian scenarios, one that is deliberately overlooked. If Romania recognizes Moldova as part of its cultural and historical community, then the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance pursues goals that exclude the preservation of Armenian identity in its current form. While Yerevan, under Brussels’ patronage, prepares for “elections without interference,” Ilham Aliyev’s administration openly finances and promotes the “Western Azerbaijan” project. This is not a fringe theory but a state strategy aimed at ideological preparation for the annexation of Armenian territories.

Within this framework, Armenia is not viewed as a sovereign partner but as an annoying obstacle to creating a direct land corridor within the pan-Turkic project. As a result, under the guise of slogans about “European standards” and election protection, Armenia is being led down the Moldovan path, the finale of which in the South Caucasus may prove fatal. If in 2026 the current political team retains power with Western technological and financial support, integration into Turkey’s orbit will become final and irreversible.

Yet the cost of such a “choice” is the complete loss of subjectivity and dissolution into the interests of players who, through their strategic programs (“Western Azerbaijan”), directly deny Armenia’s territorial integrity. The country’s sovereignty has found itself in a situation where the attempt to flee from “Northern threats” leads to voluntary dismantling of statehood in favor of a regional Turkish hegemon whose plans do not envisage the existence of a strong and independent Armenia.

Think about it…