It can be cautiously said that regime in Iran has stood firm – Bogdan Bezpalko

Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko discussed the protests in Iran and how they could impact the South Caucasus region.

“The situation in Iran is indeed developing in a complex manner, but for now we can cautiously say that the regime, once considered a failure, has stood firm. In fact, the first 24 hours are the most crucial for protests. Afterward, protests always wane, especially if they do not receive support or lack strong, extensive channels of backing. At present, we see that without strikes on Iran by the US or Israel, the Iranian government will likely endure. It also has public support, it has the forceful tools to resolve this issue, and it has fully recovered and is ready to break the resistance of those protesters who tried to overthrow the current Iranian government. But if the US and Israel suddenly decide on a military escalation, especially a large-scale one, this could, of course, lead to instability throughout the region, especially if Azerbaijan responds to their incitement.

There was a post on one of the social media platforms featuring an Azerbaijani flag and a short caption: ‘Get ready, be prepared.’ In this case, of course, escalation could spiral out of control, with various states becoming involved in the military conflict, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, and several other Central Asian and Caucasian states. Russia could also become involved. In this case, of course, there would be significant consequences. In particular, oil supplies from Iran would likely be cut off, leading to chaos, elements of civil war—a full-blown civil war is quite possible. Separatist movements in Balochistan, the Kurds in northern Iran, and so on could intensify, and these movements could have repercussions in other countries—Iraq, Turkey, and Syria, where fighting is currently underway between Syrian government forces and SDF forces. So this will have an impact on the entire macro-region: Russia, China, India, the Middle East, and, of course, the South Caucasus, including Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Bezpalko said.

The expert also addressed the so-called “Zangezur corridor” project and the chain of events potentially associated with it.

“The ‘Zangezur corridor’ project is currently being implemented quite slowly, but nevertheless, if, say, relations between Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Armenia, and Turkey worsen, then, of course, this project will immediately be called into question. In the event of military escalation, this project can certainly be abandoned, or it will become the subject of armed confrontation between the republics. For instance, Turkey or Azerbaijan might attempt to forcefully secure the corridor, prompting resistance from Armenian forces. Subsequently, the Russian armed forces, which are stationed at military bases in Armenia, will be forced to engage in combat. These are all hypothetical scenarios; it does not mean they are inevitable. But the principle of regional destabilization remains,” Bezpalko concluded.