International organizations revise forecasts regarding Armenia’s economy – Alpha Economics

We have repeatedly spoken about Armenia’s high economic indicators, including the main drivers of growth and the influences behind it. Naturally, this growth, regardless of its causes, is also noticeable to international partner structures and rating agencies. Recently, there has been a tendency toward positive shifts in forecasts and assessments of Armenia’s economy by these organizations.

In particular, at the end of 2025, the permanent representative of the International Monetary Fund presented some assessments of Armenia’s economic outlook. In the latest evaluation, Armenia’s economic growth potential is estimated at 5%, which is slightly higher than previous assessments. Factors influencing this revision included the inflow of highly qualified labor from Russia, reforms implemented under IMF programs, the integration of refugees, and steps taken toward a peace agenda.

In recent days, the World Bank also raised its forecasts for Armenia for 2025 and 2026. As a risk threatening Armenia’s economic growth, the Bank’s report pointed to the potential failure of the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings upgraded Armenia’s outlook to “positive.” It linked Armenia’s economic stability and growth risks to the peace process with Azerbaijan. At the same time, the agency noted other risks. In particular, it pointed to the issue of the budget deficit. According to the agency, the state budget deficit in 2025 stood at 5.0% of GDP, lower than the planned 5.5%, but still above the “BB” average (3.0%), reflecting reduced capital expenditures and interest payments.

The agency also addressed the debt-to-GDP ratio. According to its assessment, by the end of 2025 this indicator will rise to 50.1%, with a gradual increase projected to 53.6% in the following years.

Let us simply recall the statistics related to public debt. As of November 2025, it amounted to $14,204.2 million, compared to $14,173.2 million recorded at the end of October 2025. We have repeatedly spoken about the risks of continued growth in public debt, especially under conditions of unstable economic growth.

The problem of economic growth stability, as we see, is also evident in the above-mentioned assessments, for the simple reason that this growth is tied to rather uncertain Armenian-Azerbaijani processes. And the emphasis on this connection, of course, has objective reasons, but at the very least, propagandistic considerations cannot be excluded.