Trump cannot afford to lose face – Karine Gevorgyan on likelihood of strike against Iran

Speaking with Alpha News, political analyst Karine Gevorgyan assessed the probability of a US military strike on Iran.

According to her, several scenarios are possible: a “bone-crushing” strike by the US followed by a weak response from Tehran, or an equally harsh strike met with a strong Iranian counterattack.

“A huge ‘armada’ has been deployed to the region, and as Chekhov wrote, a gun should be fired. If not, the world’s dominant power will suffer a serious loss of face, which is not in Trump’s interest,” the expert said.

At the same time, Gevorgyan emphasized that Iran has significantly strengthened its defense capabilities in recent years. She pointed out that after the 12-day summer war, Tehran received substantial military-technical support from China and Russia.

“Some experts claim that up to 70% of Iranian territory and strategic sites are protected against missile and air strikes,” she added.

The political analyst suggested that escalation could occur on February 18, when Washington hosts the first session of the so-called Board of Peace, attended by world leaders.

Separately, Gevorgyan highlighted domestic political factors. In her view, Trump may decide on a strike to avoid reputational losses, while Iran benefits from prolonging the negotiation process. In addition, the unstable political situation surrounding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could also influence decision-making.
“Netanyahu’s position is shaky. His opposition is interested in weakening him. He has arrived in Washington and will likely use the full weight of the Israeli lobby to persuade Trump of the necessity of a strike,” she said.

Gevorgyan did not rule out a limited scenario: a symbolic strike on minor targets in Iran, combined with serious attacks on the Houthis. In her opinion, Trump’s priority is control over global trade routes, which makes the Yemeni direction strategically important.

“A strong strike on Iran is possible, as well as large-scale strikes on the Houthis. Different options are possible. Although there is still a small chance that escalation can be avoided,” Gevorgyan concluded.