Russia is still monitoring situation – Pavel Dubravskiy on Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan

Political strategist Pavel Dubravskiy spoke to Alpha News about the motives behind US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to the South Caucasus.

“I think there are several reasons. First, of course, the facilitation of the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Vance went as a representative of the Trump administration to see how things are progressing and to support this process both politically and symbolically. Second, the US administration clearly sees a trend of declining Russian influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Therefore, the Americans are trying to strengthen their own influence. At the same time, they are showing Russia: look, while you are busy with Ukraine, we are already here in the Caucasus.

Third, there are certainly economic interests. Why? Because while Russia is paying less attention to this region, the Americans are paying more.

And there is a fourth, bonus explanation. JD Vance is now trying to emphasize a more positive agenda, positive dynamics. We see that Trump has a record-high disapproval rating. We see that in the upcoming midterm elections in the US, the Republican Party risks losing at least in the House of Representatives, and possibly even a couple of seats in the Senate—something that has been quite rare for Republicans in recent times. Therefore, he is focused on a more positive international agenda,” the expert said.

According to the political strategist, Russian authorities are monitoring the situation in the region and keeping it under control.

“Russia is still watching all this, analyzing how to act further, because I have not seen any public statements on this topic. I think one can indirectly take Sergey Lavrov’s statement, which actually concerned Venezuela, where he said: look, we didn’t support Venezuela—and now Russian business, Russian companies are being pushed out; then we look at Cuba—the same thing is happening there.

The third area of concern, I believe, is Armenia and Azerbaijan—the Caucasus itself. So Russia has not given a public response yet, but indirectly I see it in Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s words, who said that Russia certainly does not like this,” Dubravskiy concluded.