Parade of pre-election bribes

Recent events in Armenia clearly signal that the ruling team has entered a stage of acute pre-election fever, manifesting itself in the most classic forms of state populism. Not long ago, the government was broadcasting rhetoric of strict budgetary discipline and the impossibility of sharp social spending. However, Nikol Pashinyan’s sudden generosity and David Khudatyan’s emergency intervention in the affairs of the company Veolia Jur show that the authorities’ confidence in their own unconditional leadership is nothing more than a façade. In reality, we are witnessing a symptom of deep anxiety: when every vote becomes worth its weight in gold, even the most unpopular decisions of the past are transformed into tools of political survival.

Just a few weeks ago, Prime Minister Pashinyan took a distinctly pragmatic, if not harsh, stance on raising pensions, arguing this with tough economic realities and the need for long-term planning. Yet recent announcements about increasing minimum pensions and benefits demonstrate a sharp 180-degree turn, made almost overnight. This sudden shift cannot be explained merely by “economic growth,” which official statistics love to cite, since fundamental indicators do not change in a matter of weeks. It is purely a political maneuver aimed at securing the loyalty of the most disciplined and active electorate—pensioners. With public discontent mounting on multiple fronts, the authorities realize that even a few thousand elderly votes can become a decisive factor in the struggle for control over the future composition of the National Assembly. If the ruling party were truly confident in its potential to secure “50% plus,” it would not be so frantically and hastily reshaping budgetary policy for the sake of short-term media effect.

At the same time, an equally telling drama is unfolding around the capital’s water supply, where David Khudatyan has stepped in as the “savior.” The statement that thanks to government efforts, Veolia Jur’s decision to switch to an exhausting 17-hour water supply schedule was revised looks like an outright attempt to prevent a social explosion in the very heart of the country. The company’s attempt to introduce long water shutoffs during the summer heat sparked a wave of entirely justified anger among Yerevan residents, uniting people of very different views. In this situation, the authorities saw not just a utility problem but a potential spark capable of igniting a large-scale protest movement that could not be contained by ordinary political methods. The reaction followed immediately: the situation was handled in “manual mode,” effectively forcing the private operator to abandon plans that could have brought not only political activists but also previously apolitical citizens into the streets.

This fuss around water and pensions exposes the main weakness of the current regime—its critical dependence on the moods of the “street” and its deep internal awareness of the fragility of its own position. Despite boastful statements about popular support and mythical ratings, the reality is that today the authorities must fight for every percentage point of loyalty, using administrative and financial levers. The signal received on the water supply issue was crystal clear: social protest in Armenia today has far greater mobilization potential than abstract political slogans. When not only professional politicians but also ordinary citizens concerned about basic living conditions join the criticism, Pashinyan’s position begins to noticeably wobble, depriving him of his usual room for maneuver.

Think about it…