Beniamin Matevosyan: US Intelligence does not believe in Pashinyan’s victory

(Fear of the referendum and the collapse of the TRIPP initiative)

The new US intelligence report for 2026 is, in essence, an admission that Washington is highly nervous. The main cause for concern is the upcoming referendum in Armenia on constitutional changes. The US states openly that its outcome is uncertain. The Americans understand: if the people of Armenia vote “no,” then all their plans and Turkish initiatives in the region (including the TRIPP project) will collapse instantly.

The headline “US Intelligence does not believe in Pashinyan’s victory” accurately reflects the nervousness that seeps through the lines of official wording. Washington no longer tries to hide that the future of its key geopolitical project in the South Caucasus – the TRIPP initiative – is in danger. The chance of keeping it possible is in the hands of the Armenian voter, the ballot outcome of which US analysts describe as “not guaranteed.”

The main concern of Americans is focused on Baku’s demand to amend Armenia’s Constitution. Washington realizes that this demand drives Nikol Pashinyan into a trap: holding a referendum under conditions of current public apathy or hidden protest could turn into political suicide. If the people of Armenia say “no” to constitutional changes, it will not just block the peace treaty, but will completely nullify years of efforts by the US and Turkey to reformat the region for their own needs. The intelligence, in effect, provides a diagnosis: there is no longer confidence that Pashinyan can “push through” the will of the people; therefore, Aliyev must be nudged to sign the treaty immediately while there is still someone in Yerevan to negotiate with.

A particular “piquancy” is added to the situation by the absolute sterility of the report regarding humanitarian issues. In the 2026 document, which claims to be a comprehensive threat assessment, there is not a single mention of the forced deportation of the Armenians of Artsakh, which became the region’s largest humanitarian catastrophe in recent decades. US intelligence completely ignores the issue of prisoners of war and the basic rights of refugees, focusing exclusively on “stability.” This is direct confirmation that for the White House, the quality of peace and its justice hold no significance. The goal is not the establishment of a lasting agreement between peoples, but the creation of an uninterrupted logistical corridor where human rights are merely a nuisance to the flow of cargo.

For American strategists, peace in the Caucasus is measured not by the return of people to their homes, but by the ability to control infrastructure important to Russia and China, as well as the creation of a “sanitary cordon” near Iran, currently referred to as TRIPP. The successes mentioned in the report – the lifting of transit restrictions and the start of Azerbaijani gasoline supplies to Armenia – are presented as signs of detente; however, in reality, they look like the formation of a new dependency and pre-election bonuses for Pashinyan. Washington encourages Armenia’s integration into an economic field controlled by the Baku-Ankara tandem, believing that trade benefits will make society forget about national interests. However, the intelligence’s admission that the referendum outcome is unclear proves that the US understands that “buying” peace through economic handouts might not work. The haste with which the Americans are trying to lock in agreements before the elections betrays their main fear – the fear that Armenian society will choose subjectivity instead of the role of a transit hub offered to it.

Think about it…