Aliyev is cynically using the Russia-Europe conflict to its own advantage: Vladimir Skachko

Political analyst Vladimir Skachko commented to Alpha News on the statement by Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, that Azerbaijan is ready to replace Russia on the European gas market.

“This is a kind of multi-step maneuver on Azerbaijan’s part. Essentially, it’s an attempt to sit on two chairs. Almost in parallel, Ilham Aliyev states that Azerbaijan has excellent relations with Russia, that issues related to the downed plane, compensation for the families of the deceased passengers, and other contentious points have been settled and don’t create serious problems. All of this is meant to play in Russia’s favor, to help improve relations, preserve economic ties, and secure access for Azerbaijani goods to the Russian market. On the other hand, the multi-vector Ilham Aliyev seeks to maintain relations with both Turkey and Europe. So he’s acting quite sensibly, cynically, and deliberately, offering Europe the energy resources it currently lacks. Even Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany, recently said that the crisis in the German economy is largely linked to the shortage of Russian natural gas. In this way, Aliyev is trying to please both sides. But how realistic this is is an entirely different question. In practice, it’s almost impossible, for two reasons. First, Azerbaijan doesn’t currently have a sufficient volume of energy resources. The volumes it does have have long since been contracted, bought up, and are being directed along existing routes. Second, the political and geopolitical situation is constantly shifting. It’s precisely this that creates the conditions for such statements today, but it could just as easily lead to the most unpredictable and undesirable consequences for Azerbaijan,” said Skachko.

According to the expert, if relations deteriorate, Baku could face serious economic consequences.

“When it comes to complications, we’re talking about both political and economic risks. For example, the closure of the Russian market to Azerbaijani products would hit Azerbaijan far harder than the hypothetical prospects of increasing energy supplies to Europe. The real economic losses would be far more significant than the illusory promises of flooding Europe with Azerbaijani gas,” Skachko concluded.