Beniamin Matevosyan: Is Pashinyan asking Macron for help to stand up to Putin?

(How will the EU behave ahead of Pashinyan’s upcoming visit to Moscow?)

The official pretext for the latest visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Paris was his participation in the International Space Summit. However, behind the outwardly technological and scientific agenda of the talks at the Élysée Palace, a geopolitical subtext is clearly visible. Amid the difficult contacts ahead with the Russian president, Pashinyan is seeking external support that would allow him to strengthen his negotiating position before Moscow. In this context, the meeting with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, looks like an attempt to demonstrate to the Kremlin that an alternative exists: if Russia refuses its usual cooperation or takes a tough stance, the European Union, and France first and foremost, is ready to immediately take its place in the region.

Alongside the diplomatic activity on the Paris track, an information-political campaign is unfolding inside Armenia itself. Media resources controlled by the current authorities and closely tied to the circles that initiated the signature-collection campaign for a law on launching Yerevan’s EU accession process have been mobilized. Claims are being actively pushed into the information space that, after the effective seizure and de facto nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia under the pretext of public benefit, the state should go further. This refers to the systematic expropriation and transfer to state control of Russia’s remaining strategic assets, chief among them the infrastructure of Gazprom and Transgaz. This kind of rhetoric is not simply domestic populism, but an element of global blackmail against the Kremlin, in which economic sovereignty is used as a lever of pressure.

The plan of the Armenian authorities is to call into question the very presence of Russia’s largest state companies in the country, turning economic obligations into an instrument of political bargaining. In this risky game, however, Yerevan is relying entirely on external patronage, including from Paris. Macron traditionally appears alongside Pashinyan precisely at the most fateful and critical moments for Armenia. It is enough to recall the 2022 Prague summit, when, under the direct moderation of the French leader, the groundwork was laid for the final surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Today history is repeating itself, but now at the level of Armenia’s fundamental infrastructural and political ties with Russia.

During the protocol portion of the Paris visit, the two sides, as usual, emphasized the importance of the bilateral declaration on strategic cooperation, the diversification of the Armenian economy, and joint infrastructure plans. But behind the elegant language about economic partnership and strengthening peace lies Yerevan’s attempt to secure security guarantees and a financial-political cushion from the West. Pashinyan is counting on French support allowing him to talk to Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, from a position of strength, or at least with some insurance in hand.

The main question is how deeply the European Union itself is prepared to get involved in this conflict and take on real responsibility for Armenia. Macron is happy to offer Pashinyan a diplomatic platform and loud declarations, encouraging Yerevan toward a further break with Moscow. But when it comes to a tough response from Russia, whether in energy, gas pricing, or logistics, Armenia’s leadership risks being left alone to face the consequences of its own blackmail.

The Élysée Palace is once again using the Armenian factor to weaken Russia’s position in the South Caucasus, all while giving Yerevan no firm legal or military guarantees.

Think about that…