Exit from EAEU would be disastrous for Armenia’s economy: Andrey Perla

Andrey Perla, a political commentator, told Alpha News about the report by members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

In the expert’s opinion, Armenia’s exit from the EAEU could lead to a substantial reduction in remittances from Russia, restrictions on employment opportunities for Armenian citizens in the Russian Federation, and a sharp rise in the price of Russian gas.

“In my view, the most telling part of the joint report in question is not what concerns customs rules, but what concerns, first, the transfer of funds from Russia to Armenia and, second, the possibility of employment of Armenian citizens in Russia.

If Armenia leaves the EAEU and attitudes toward it change – not to hostile, by no means, but to neutral, as toward a third country that is not in the EAEU – the flow of funds from Russia to Armenia will fall by at least half. The report says so.

Second, the employment of Armenian citizens in Russia will take place under the same rules as for citizens of third countries, such as Uzbekistan in the current arrangement, and not under the rules established for EAEU countries. The total losses for Armenia are rather hard to imagine now, but it is obvious that direct remittances alone will fall by about $1.5–2 billion. That is more than a substantial share of Armenia’s GDP. It is also obvious that jobs in Russia will be practically closed to Armenians, unless they are citizens of Russia,” he said.

According to the expert, a price increase for Russian gas of at least 69% could make its industrial use in Armenia unprofitable. Perla believes that leaving the EAEU would be disastrous for the Armenian economy, but doubts that the authorities can be persuaded to change course on European integration.

“At the same time, an extremely difficult situation will arise for Armenia because of the rise in the price of Russian gas. According to the report, this increase will be at least 69%. That is, the price will become unaffordable for the Armenian economy. In effect, the use of gas for industrial purposes in Armenia, as happened in Germany, will become unprofitable at the very least. Based on all this, one can draw an unequivocal conclusion that leaving the EAEU is disastrous for Armenia. This is confirmed by figures, and official figures of the EAEU itself. We cannot, of course, predict yet how the Armenian government will react to this message. But I think that, unfortunately, it will not be possible to change Pashinyan’s mind, because he has taken a completely fanatical course toward an absolutely unrealistic membership in the European Union,” Perla concluded.