After this war ends, US and Israel may launch military campaigns against Iran every six months – Georgy Asatryan

Georgy Asatryan, Deputy Director of the HSE Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy, spoke to Alpha News about the war between the US and Israel against Iran, its course and prospects, as well as the possible impact of the conflict on the South Caucasus.

“We remain in the ‘fog of war’: analysis is complicated by numerous fakes, AI‑generated materials, and strict military censorship. Unlike the 12‑day war, both sides have now tightened control over information, especially Israel, from which fewer images are coming. As for the course of hostilities, it seems the active phase is nearing completion – we may be talking about a week or several weeks. The initiator of the conflict is likely seeking to end it. Attempts at a negotiation process are beginning, with the US involved. In this context, Trump’s call to Putin is telling as part of diplomatic activity. Overall, steps are being taken toward ending the active stage of the war,” Asatryan said.

According to the expert, the goals of the US and Israel regarding Iran have shifted during the war.

“Initially, the goals of the US and Israel were regime change, destruction of Iran’s ballistic program, and striking its nuclear infrastructure. All three goals failed. Later, the goals transformed: the US and Israel decided it was necessary to strike the state, consuming military resources and weakening its statehood potential. Ultimately, this may lead to the desired results. Regime change did not succeed, the state proved strong, so to achieve this goal it was decided to weaken Iran systematically. At first, they counted on regime change through elimination of the leadership, including Ali Khamenei, but this did not happen… Iran chose a strategy of weakening US and Israeli missile defense systems in the region through strikes on their facilities and allies. Despite limitations, the coalition’s position remains difficult: goals have been partially achieved, Iran’s military potential has been weakened, but global objectives have not yet been fulfilled,” Asatryan said.

The expert does not rule out that the US and Israel will regularly initiate military actions against Iran to achieve regime change by gradually weakening Tehran’s resources.

“They may launch a military campaign every six months – lasting 10, 12, 15 days – gradually reducing Iran’s military potential. An important factor is how the Gulf states will behave after these events, because some Gulf states were an important factor in Iran bypassing sanctions, especially Qatar and others. Of course, significant Iranian financial assets are present there. So how they will act now, how they will build policy toward Iran – it is hard to say,” he said.

The expert negatively assesses the choice of a new Supreme Leader in Iran, considering hereditary succession contrary to the principles of the Islamic Republic.

“I assess this negatively: the principle of hereditary power contradicts the foundations of the Islamic Republic. Such a transformation may undermine its foundations and ideology. The domestic political situation remains stable, there is no serious struggle, consultations are limited due to aerial threats. The key factor in the war will be the military economy and military‑technical potential, as they will determine the balance of power,” Asatryan said.

The expert also noted that the South Caucasus is close to Iran, and events will affect both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“The South Caucasus is in immediate proximity, these are border countries with Iran, and depending on how scenarios unfold, this influence will be felt both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. As for some conflict between Tehran and Baku, I believe they will manage to establish relations somehow, because Turkey’s role is very important. I believe relations between Tehran and Baku will be normalized, and overall the situation there will be fairly calm, with no problems for either side,” Asatryan concluded.