Alexey Leonkov: Two parties are interested in the escalation in the South Caucasus – the USA and Great Britain

Russian military expert Alexey Leonkov commented to Alpha News on the escalation of tension on the border of Armenia and Artsakh with Azerbaijan.

“The situation around Armenia and Artsakh is developing in a difficult way. It is clear that there is a certain tension, and it does not depend on the position of Azerbaijan, because everyone understands that its position is based on how those who are trying to manage the escalation in the South Caucasus will look at it. There are two interested parties – the USA and Great Britain, who are now suffering a clear defeat in the Special Military Operation and want to create a new ‘Second Front’ in the South Caucasus.

Any provocation can become a casus belli, but it is clear that the ‘go!’ command will be given only when it is considered necessary. Azerbaijan will only be able to do something there – a conflict or shelling, when this is agreed upon with those actors who are trying to oust Russia from the region,” Leonkov said.

The military expert gave a forecast on the actions of official Moscow if Azerbaijan decides to invade Artsakh.

“What will Russia do in this case? We need to recall our peacekeepers in South Ossetia. When hostilities against the Ossetians began, Russia sent troops not only to protect its peacekeepers, but also to save the local population from genocide. That is, it is quite possible the same scenario will be repeated in Artsakh,” Leonkov said.

Leonkov also suggested how the situation would develop if Armenia entered into a potential conflict.

“If we are talking about the fate of the military base in Gyumri, then we need to understand that the presence of Russian military personnel there is due to many intergovernmental agreements, including the agreement on joint defense. In order to get rid of our military personnel, the Armenian authorities must take an unprecedented step – break all treaties on friendship and joint defense.

It is clear that the Armenian authorities must, in the event of the outbreak of large-scale hostilities, turn to Russia so that this treaty comes into force. But as the 44-day war showed, Armenia did not do this even when the eastern territories of Armenia were affected. Therefore, everything here will be in the legal framework on the one hand, and on the other hand it will be decided in the Kremlin with that same defense necessity or protection of Russian national interests.

We understand that a destructive attitude prevails in Armenia and the population of Armenia is in every possible way inclined towards anti-Russian rhetoric, but everything can change at any moment. And maybe that casus belli will not even lead to such dire consequences. Any war is easy to start and very difficult to stop,” he said.

“I think that Russia is now working on two scenarios. The first is to prevent this escalation, i.e. invasions. The second is how it will act given what happened during the 44-day war. And I think that this scenario will be different from the one in 2020,” Leonkov concluded.