Aliyev does not correspond to Turkiye’s ideas about power in Azerbaijan, says political scientist

Aliyev does not correspond to Turkiye’s ideas about power in Azerbaijan, political scientist Alen Ghevondyan said in an interview with Alpha News.

“In such super-authoritarian countries, a change of power occurs either through a palace coup or through the streets. If there is a change of power through the streets, there will be more victims. Today’s statement by Aliyev came as a surprise. The opposition in Azerbaijan is not institutional; the opposition always works under the great influence of the authorities. Aliyev understands the situation in Azerbaijan well; he has ruled his country for at least a decade and a half. The task was to draw a certain red line, ensuring legitimacy and avoiding violence. That is, the main culprit of everything was the Artsakh cause,” Ghevondyan said.

According to him, the President of Azerbaijan created the impression in his country that the Armenians occupied their lands and, with the help of the current authorities of Armenia, received them back․

“Aliyev told his people that they live poorly and are experiencing hardships because the Armenians occupied their country; therefore, Azerbaijan must liberate it. With the direct participation and involvement of the Armenian authorities, they did what they did. They tried to return Artsakh, and they succeeded. There will already be real voters from Artsakh in the presidential elections. By February, Aliyev will try to place polling stations there,” the political scientist noted.

According to Ghevondyan, Azerbaijan has debts to Russia, Turkiye and the West․

“Aliyev will state that from now on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan has been restored, he is the master of his word, and his legitimacy will increase. But at what cost did he achieve this? In general, Azerbaijan is a closed country in terms of information availability. Does anyone know how many casualties the Azerbaijanis suffered during the 44-day war? According to unverified data, at least no less than 11 thousand. However, there is social revolt there and great discontent, which they are trying to hide.

As a result of the elections, Aliyev should receive a new mandate of legitimacy. He needs this in relations with Turkiye, Russia, and the West because, during the 44-day war, he found himself in political debt. No matter how much Erdogan talks about warm relations with Azerbaijan, the influence of Erdogan and Turkiye on the country’s domestic affairs has increased because of the war. Saying that Aliyev fully corresponds to Turkiye’s ideas about the preferred power in Azerbaijan is not entirely true,” Ghevondyan concluded.