Aliyev has distorted view of Azerbaijan’s role in global order – Evgeny Krutikov

Speaking with Alpha News, political analyst Evgeny Krutikov commented on the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, the Washington-mediated talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the positions of Iran and Russia regarding ongoing developments in the region and the “Trump Route.”

Commenting on Ilham Aliyev’s visit to the SCO summit and his congratulatory remarks to Pakistan for its victory over India, Krutikov noted that this reflects Aliyev’s distorted perception of Azerbaijan’s role in global politics.

“This is probably due to the euphoria after the success of the operation in Karabakh. Aliyev believes that he can afford to quarrel with everyone—from France to Russia, and now with India. Such behavior looks unreasonable and lacks political logic. This is rather a desire to infringe on India, which maintains good relations with Russia and did not join the sanctions,” Krutikov said.

Touching upon the agreements between Yerevan and Baku in Washington, the expert said that it is likely that no agreements exist.

“It seems that there are no clear agreements: the parties interpret them differently, use euphemisms and, perhaps, do not even understand the issues in the same way. Until the actual text of the agreement is published, we can only guess. Aliyev is actively promoting his vision, and Pashinyan is only reacting, without shaping his own agenda. Either the agreements don’t exist, or they’re so vague and framework-based that they can be interpreted in any number of ways. Probably, Trump needed the signing to demonstrate the peacemaking role amid failures in other regions. What is actually written in the agreement remains unknown,” Krutikov said.

According to the expert, during the pre-election period it is extremely advantageous for Pashinyan to refer to some kind of peace that he allegedly already concluded, although in fact there is no agreement.

“The so-called ‘Zangezur corridor’ is a particular circumstance of a larger agreement, so there is no full-fledged agreement yet. There are only demands on Pashinyan’s government, which are partially fulfilled, and partially there is a constant verbal skirmish and bargaining for minor concessions from Yerevan. For Pashinyan, in the pre-election period, it is extremely advantageous to refer to some kind of peace that he has allegedly already concluded, although in fact there is no agreement. Even the terminology around long-term peace is ambiguous: what exactly does ‘recognition of territorial integrity’ mean, and within which borders or maps?” Krutikov said.

The expert also commented on the reaction of Iran and Russia to the regional developments and the “Trump Route,” and emphasized that Russia does not intend to leave the South Caucasus.