Aliyev’s task is to humiliate Armenia as much as possible – Gleb Kuznetsov

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov commented on the UN Climate Change Conference COP29 taking place in Baku, the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as changes in US foreign policy with Donald Trump in the White House.

“Optimists expected that Aliyev would need this peace agreement to demonstrate at this event what a peacemaker he is and how he advocates for peace and for the removal of international tensions, which is an important part of the climate summit agenda. Because we all know that wars have a bad effect on the environment, on climate change, and on everything. But Aliyev decided that he would not give humanity such a gift.

“Unpleasant, strange, and strong anti-Armenian statements are being made again, and this time across the entire vector, including the environmental one. So there is no point in talking about detente because Aliyev now feels like he is on top, strong, and confident. There is no international pressure on him at the moment because Azerbaijan supplies Russian energy resources to Europe under the guise of its own, performs important functions for Israel and the United States in monitoring Iran, and so on. Today, Azerbaijan feels its strength and influence. Current Baku is not interested in any detente or in any ease of trans-border tensions and is not at all embarrassed by this. We must understand that Baku, not feeling any international pressure, is acting from a position of strength, engaging in aggressive rhetoric, and, in general, it is unclear how all this will end,” Kuznetsov said.

According to the expert, Aliyev’s goal is to humiliate Armenia as much as possible.

“It is absolutely clear from all of Aliyev’s speeches and from what he has been doing in recent years that his goal is not just to resolve political or economic issues of his country but to achieve maximum and unlimited humiliation of Armenia. In fact, this is where the demands to change the Constitution of Armenia to sign a peace agreement come from. These demands are absurd. The demand to remove Ararat from the state symbols of Armenia is absurd. Armenia has not suffered such a heavy defeat to change the flag, coat of arms, Constitution and abandon its own army just because the aggressor wants it. Armenia has not capitulated; the sovereign Armenian territory has not suffered the damage that usually accompanies demands for unconditional surrender. Therefore, no matter what they say about the new process of concluding a peace agreement, I believe this will not happen soon,” Kuznetsov emphasized.

According to the political scientist, everyone is treating the climate summit in Baku with humor.

“Everyone is treating this climate summit with humor. The climate agenda is currently in a deep crisis, and firstly, it is unclear whether it will ever get out of it; secondly, where it will go is also unclear. Previous events were held with a much higher status of participants, and at least some meaningful documents were signed there. Now there will not be even such non-binding papers,” Kuznetsov noted.

According to the expert, with Trump, the situation for Armenia and Iran may worsen.

“Currently, the process of forming Trump’s foreign policy team is underway. Trump did not come into a vacuum. He is surrounded by lobbyists, people interested in some long-term, large-scale economic projects. He has obligations to his own voters. He will not be able to do what he promised without paying attention to anyone, so America’s foreign policy will initially be a succession of both Biden’s foreign policy and Trump’s own foreign policy in his previous term. When it comes to the South Caucasus, it is worth reducing positive expectations, if they exist in Armenian society, because Trump has repeatedly emphasized his commitment to the interests of Israel and anti-Iranian policy. Given the relations between Israel, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Iran, it is obvious that the situation will worsen for Armenia and Iran. And Israel and its allies will be able to do more and be even more aggressive,” Kuznetsov concluded.