Armenian authorities are willing to make concessions to Baku – Gleb Kuznetsov on Armenia-Azerbaijan deal

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov commented on the possibility of signing a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, the situation in Armenian-Russian relations, and what could worsen relations between Armenia and Iran.

According to the expert, the Armenian authorities are willing to make concessions to Baku, so it is possible that a peace agreement may be signed.

“I consider this just another piece of news that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to concluding a peace treaty. It is difficult to say what is really happening there, but now there really could be an opportunity for concluding a peace treaty. Aliyev confirmed all his powers by being elected president and electing a fully controlled parliament. Azerbaijan will host the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in November 2024, and therefore it wants to turn the page of relations with Armenia on some positive note. The Armenian authorities are also interested in signing the agreement. It has been repeatedly emphasized that Armenia has no territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

The Armenian authorities are willing to make concessions to Baku on all sorts of small issues and do not raise major issues such as the issue of POWs, so it is possible that right now, given the global interest of all parties, this agreement can be signed,” Kuznetsov said.

Commenting on Iran’s statement that Iran supports unblocking transport communications in the region but at the same time is against any changes to international borders, the political scientist said that Armenia’s so-called “affair” with the West could worsen Armenia’s relations with Iran.

“It is just a standard statement. Iran has said this not once, not twice, not even a hundred times. Iran reminds everyone that, while it is not fully an international guarantor of Armenia’s territorial integrity, it believes that this territorial integrity should be preserved. At the same time, I fear that this so-called affair between Armenia and the West may alienate and somehow worsen Armenia’s relations with Iran, because the hatred of Western countries towards Iran is well known, and it is obvious that any improvement in relations with the United States and the EU will inevitably be conditioned by anti-Iranian rhetoric and anti-Iranian steps,” Kuznetsov noted.

Speaking about Baku’s ongoing disinformation that the Armenian Armed Forces are allegedly opening fire towards Azerbaijani positions, the expert noted that this is a traditional tool of Azerbaijani propaganda.

“This is a traditional tool of Azerbaijani propaganda to justify their further aggressive actions. But again, I believe this year will pass quietly because Azerbaijan is hosting COP29 and it has a super important task to hold its environmental event beautifully. Therefore, it is unlikely that Aliyev will want to overshadow this event with military actions. Another thing is that keeping Armenians in suspense is Aliyev’s favorite policy, and, unfortunately, it is very traditional for this region,” Kuznetsov said.

According to the political scientist, Pashinyan is trying to pursue a multi-vector policy, but it is important not to get carried away.

“Relations between Armenia and Russia have not been going through the best of times in recent years, but it seems to me that they have stabilized in these not-so-good times. In other words, there are no sharp steps on either side. Pashinyan is trying to pursue a multi-vector policy, play on many boards at once, and please Brussels, Washington, Moscow, Tehran, and everyone at the same time. This is a fairly logical and understandable strategy of international relations for a country in such a difficult geopolitical situation,” he said.