Armenian authorities’ position is to bring West to region – Nikolay Silaev

Speaking with Alpha News, leading researcher at MGIMO University Nikolay Silaev commented on the outcome of the talks between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan, mediated by US President Donald Trump in Washington, Russia’s role in the South Caucasus region, as well as the potential transfer of weapons from Azerbaijan to Ukraine.

According to the expert, the position of the Armenian authorities is that peace and security consist of bringing the West into the region and agreeing to all of Azerbaijan’s demands.

“The peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been initialed, all other documents are either trilateral declarations or bilateral memorandums of understanding signed separately by Armenia and Azerbaijan with the United States. The trilateral joint declaration mentions the so-called ‘Trump Route’, but it does not specify what kind of route it is, how it will operate, under what conditions, or according to which principles. What are the possible scenarios? The first scenario is that Armenia, as a state, hands over part of its territory to the United States with all sovereign rights. The second scenario is that a private American company leases the road, builds transport infrastructure and warehouses, while Armenian border guards handle border control and Armenian police ensure road safety. But then why call the US President? I believe a hybrid scenario is most likely: a private company builds a road, receives it for management, and the same or another private company will provide border and customs control. But to implement this, it is necessary to make very serious changes to the Constitution of Armenia,” Silaev said.

“Armenia has other agreements within the framework of the EAEU. And in general, the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Syunik is the external border of the EAEU. Member states of the EAEU may rightly ask: who is actually exercising border control over this territory?” Silaev added.

According to the expert, regardless of fluctuations, Russia will still remain one of the most influential players in the region.

“Criticism of Russia’s limited involvement, particularly in September 2022, is understandable only to some extent. But does this mean that we need to break off relations? Does this mean that Armenia should leave its alliances with Russia? There are no absolute alliances in the world. There are no absolute international security guarantees in the world. There are no allies in the world who are ready to fight for you, even if you are not going to fight for yourself,” Silaev noted.

“Russian influence in Transcaucasia is declining, although this is a non-linear process. There are people both in Russia and abroad who are convinced that the goal of Russian foreign policy in Transcaucasia is absolute dominance in this region. I do not think so. Russian interests in Transcaucasia, as in other regions of the post-Soviet space, consist of exactly two things: first, that neighboring countries do not join military blocs that exclude Russia or become platforms for third-party forces hostile to Russia; second, that political elites in these countries do not promote anti-Russian ideologies.

Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has joined alliances with any third countries directed against Russia. But when it comes to ideology, things are not going well here—either in Armenia or in Azerbaijan. In both countries, the authorities say that the main enemy is Russia. We need to engage with this, to work with this, to communicate that such narratives are counterproductive and ultimately harmful to their own interests.

Regardless of fluctuations, Russia will still remain one of the most influential players in the region due to its size, economic, military and other significance,” Silaev said.