Armenians are guaranteed to be disappointed in Western policies, expert says

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov commented on the trilateral US-EU-Armenia meeting in Brussels.

According to the expert, Armenians are absolutely guaranteed to be disappointed in the real policies of Western countries towards Armenia and Armenian sovereignty.

“At this meeting, they can promise anything, but the question is how feasible these promises will be and whether the promising party is even ready to fulfill them. So far, we see that before this meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen specifically called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and almost apologized for this meeting. Europe, the USA, and Israel objectively need Azerbaijan. But Armenia simply does not have the advantages and bargaining leverage with Europeans and Americans that Azerbaijan has. Armenia needs to rely first of all on itself; it has only one ally: the Armenian people inside and outside the sovereign territory of Armenia. Unfortunately, Armenia has no other friends, partners, or allies.

It seems to me that now one of the key problems in Armenia is the constant desire to find some new hope. Armenians are absolutely guaranteed to be disappointed in the real policies of Western countries towards Armenia and Armenian sovereignty,” Kuznetsov said.

According to the expert, when Armenia fails to fulfill the demands, the West will say, “since you did not fulfill our demands, you are left alone with Azerbaijan.”

“The West has two absolutely clear tasks in relation to Armenia. The first is to demonstrate to the whole world that Armenia has left Russia’s orbit. For the West, finding a country that will join the Western world is propaganda and a winning story. The second thing the West needs from Armenia is to join the anti-Iranian bloc. For this, Armenia must actually abandon the partner country with which it has a land border. However, Armenia doesn’t have enough open borders to just say ‘no’ to Iran. The West may put forward demands that are absolutely unacceptable for the Armenian state and Armenian sovereignty, and when Armenia fails to fulfill them completely, the West will say: since you did not fulfill our demands, you are left alone with Azerbaijan. This is the most realistic scenario.

We must understand that the West and Azerbaijan have much more fundamental interests, so it will not be so easy to apply pressure on Azerbaijan to change its policy in the Armenian direction,” Kuznetsov said.

“If we talk about what demands the West can make to Armenia in return for help, then there are quite a lot of them. It could be the following: close the Armenian-Iranian border, withdraw from all organizations in which Russia participates, and even interrupt flights with Moscow. Russia will react negatively to these things. However, it is worth noting that saying we will oust Russia from the South Caucasus and actually doing it are completely different things. It is pointless to rely on the fact that, having quarreled with Russia, Armenia will make friends with the West, which will solve all the problems. You need to be friends with both Russia and the West,” Kuznetsov emphasized.

The expert also commented on the possibility of a new escalation with Azerbaijan and the misunderstandings between Armenia and the CSTO.