Armenia’s accession to EU may negatively affect relations with Russia – Tigran Meloyan

Speaking with Alpha News, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, commented on the possibility of Armenia joining the EU, what to expect in the South Caucasus amid the crisis in US-EU relations, and the talks between Russia and the US in Saudi Arabia.

“From the very beginning, Armenia tried to maneuver between the West and the East. And as the confrontation between Russia and the United States in the international arena intensified, Yerevan had to choose one of the sides. Russia defines Armenia’s current policy as Armenia’s sovereign right; it does not want and does not plan to interfere and change the current policy of Armenia’s official authorities. This is the personal choice of Armenia and the Armenian people. Moscow is ready to agree with this, but it is the Armenian authorities that will bear the responsibility for this choice,” Meloyan said.

“Armenia expects from the European Union, first of all, support, which it did not receive in due time from Moscow. Here, Armenia basically pursues the policy of romanticism, a kind of illusion. Armenia has close ties with Russia in security and economy as well as cultural and humanitarian ties. And here it is important to understand that the very accession to the EU and obtaining the status of a candidate for accession look rather vague for Armenia.

Armenia has a huge amount of work to do to comply with the norms and principles that the EU is now putting forward as necessary for accession. And here it is also important to consider that this could negatively affect relations with Russia. It should be taken into account whether Armenia will be deprived of all these benefits that it has from the EAEU in its further path to the EU structures,” Meloyan noted.

Touching upon the crisis in relations between the US and the EU and its impact on the South Caucasus, the expert said that this will lead to the absence of a unified US and EU policy around the region.

“The US and EU policies around the South Caucasus were initially united when the Joe Biden-led Democratic Party was in power in the US. And before leaving the post of US President, Biden made a gesture of goodwill by signing a charter on strategic partnership with Armenia. But what does the signing of this charter actually mean? In fact, the charter does not mean that Armenia will be provided with any weapons or that a US military base can be deployed on the territory of Armenia. A similar charter has been signed with Ukraine.

With Donald Trump coming to power, Armenia may receive nothing in the security sphere and nothing in the economic sphere. Republicans have always paid less attention to the South Caucasus. They have completely different priorities, which are focused on the Asia-Pacific region rather than on places far from their continent. As for the prospects of Armenia’s European integration, it is necessary to understand that there are always risks, there is no automatic right to join.

The candidate status that the current leadership of Armenia is striving for does not guarantee automatic accession to the EU, and there was not even any official reaction from Brussels. Not a single declarative document was issued in Munich that would mention that Armenia had chosen the path of European integration and that the EU welcomes this decision,” Meloyan said.

According to the analyst, one should not expect quick results from the talks between Russia and the United States in Saudi Arabia.

“The main thing to note is that the results will not be quick. There are many conditions both from the American side and from the Russian side. It is very interesting that the EU is not actually allowed to participate in the talks. Now discussions of global and strategic issues that have piled up between Russia and the United States are underway. It is important to note here that Ukraine is only one of the cases that Washington and Moscow are going to discuss.

The issue of the nuclear arms race, the US sanctions policy towards Russia and what concessions each side can make are also on the agenda. That is, in fact, they are now figuring out on which issues the parties can reach consensus. It is no time to talk about some formula for quickly achieving progress, including the resolution to the conflict in Ukraine,” Meloyan concluded.