Artsakh has fallen. What’s next?

September 28, 2023 will take its place among such terrible and sometimes shameful dates for the Armenian people as December 7, 1988, May 8, 2018, September 27 and November 9, 2020, October 6, 2022.

On September 28, the fifth President of Artsakh, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed a decree on the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh from January 1, 2024. Let us leave aside the legal, historical and political aspects of Shahramanyan’s decision and note that the geopolitical situation emerging around Armenia proves that the fall of Artsakh, ethnic cleansing in Artsakh, the dissolution of statehood under the threat of physical extermination is far from the end of our losses. Moreover, the loss Artsakh is just the beginning.

The logical conclusion of the events that started on May 8, 2018 could be “a decree on the dissolution of the Republic of Armenia itself.”

Pashinyan’s propaganda does not even hide that after the fall of Artsakh, turmoil will not end. Yerevan will continue to pursue a geopolitical turn, the formation of a new “anti-Russia” following the Ukrainian example, and more specifically, the expulsion of Russia from the region, as well as a complete transformation of the security structure of the South Caucasus.

Following the end of military-political cooperation with Russia (withdrawal from the CSTO, withdrawal of 102 military bases, withdrawal of Russian border guards), the RA security system will be “left in the air.” It will remain “left in the air” in a situation where the arrival of Western countries such as France or the United States in the region promoted by the authorities is simply impossible, due to the geographical location of our country as well. Armenia is surrounded by Iran, Georgia, Turkiye and Azerbaijan; none of these countries will allow Western troops to be moved through their territory to Armenia.

As mentioned above, in such a situation the security of Armenia remains “left in the air” and in many ways the very existence of Armenia will depend on Iran. However, if official Yerevan reorients its foreign policy towards the West, the Armenian side will lose the loyalty and support of official Tehran.

As a result, Baku and Ankara will increase pressure on Yerevan, demanding to provide a “corridor through” Syunik, which contradicts all the propaganda of Nikol Pashinyan, who, on the one hand, convinced that “Armenia’s problems with Turkiye and Azerbaijan are caused by the existence of Artsakh and the Russian-Armenian military cooperation,” on the other hand, he assured that “there will be no corridor through Armenia.” Then, Baku and Ankara will launch another aggression against Armenia, and will try to resolve the issue not only with the “Zangezur corridor”, but also with “Western Azerbaijan” as a whole.

Of course, as in the case of the latest ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Artsakh, the world community will “strongly condemn” the actions of Azerbaijan and “express concern” about Turkiye’s support for Azerbaijani aggression, but no more than that.

After the corridor and the loss of Armenia’s common land border with Iran, Armenia will cease to be of interest to official Tehran, and will also geographically find itself in the “Turkish-Azerbaijani grip.” Then, it will only be a matter of time before Azerbaijan repeats the aggression of September 19-20, but against Armenia itself. The residents of Armenia will be given time to evacuate from their homes, and we will repeat the fate of not only the people of Artsakh, but also the residents of Kabul, who were evacuated from their historical homeland by clinging to an airplane.

Does all this seem fantastic to you? And 5 years ago, didn’t the surrender of Hadrut, Shushi, Stepanakert and Gandzasar seem fantastic?

With the fall of Artsakh, the crisis in Armenia will not end. It will gain new forms and ways.