Azerbaijan has simply become insolent from its impunity, says military observer

Russian military observer Yuri Kotenok discussed current issues on the South Caucasus agenda in an interview with Alpha News and noted that Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the fact that Russia has turned its gaze away from the South Caucasus.

“The Armenian side should have been preparing for military action long ago. I believe there are significant problems, and in fact everything is clear. Azerbaijan’s actions are calculated and understandable. This is euphoria, this is the right of the winner, the desire to seize as much territory as possible and dictate their terms. Unfortunately, this situation is deeply alarming for Armenia and Armenians because, in my opinion, provocations will continue. In my opinion, the hegemonic ambitions remain intact,” Kotenok said.

The war correspondent warned that Armenians are, without exaggeration, on the brink of a repeat genocide, which can only be avoided through unity.

“It’s not about the enemy, it’s about us. How prepared are Armenians to defend their homeland and resist external pressure and dictates? The future of independent Armenia and the Armenian ethnic group will depend on this. But our task, the task of Armenians, is to prevent a new genocide, as the question can indeed be framed in such stark terms,” the expert emphasized.

Commenting on official Baku’s behavior towards Russia and its aggressive attacks, the military observer stated that everything that is happening is due to impunity and permissiveness. However, Russia will definitely respond.

“Azerbaijan has become brazen—simply brazen. This is the simplest explanation for Azerbaijan’s actions: impunity, constant Russophobic rhetoric and a persistent desire to impose its own information agenda. Unfortunately, in my opinion, it does not meet with a proper, adequate assessment from our side. Azerbaijan’s leadership has made harsh, even insulting remarks about Russia, taking advantage of its focus on the West and the special military operation.

Russia’s resources are currently directed towards securing its western and southwestern borders, and Azerbaijan is exploiting this shift in focus. That is why we witness such harsh statements. I believe these statements will not be the last. Aliyev has grown confident in his strength and believes he can achieve the impossible.

He sees Azerbaijan as a regional leader, especially relying on the support of such a player as Turkey. Well, let’s see where this leads. I believe this rhetoric and agenda will inevitably lead to a clash of interests between Russia and Azerbaijan. That is, someone will have to back down. Russia, though slow to act, can and will respond when necessary,” Kotenok warned.

“Turkey is still pursuing its expansive policy of proselytism. After the counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya, Turkey temporarily scaled back its proselytism in the North Caucasus, including Kuban. However, in Transcaucasia, it remains highly active. It is using hybrid methods such as military-political pressure, and political presence, and these are NGO forces, which mainly concern, of course, Azerbaijan. Georgia, especially Adjara, is also influenced by Turkish business schemes. Indeed, Turkey’s influence in Transcaucasia is immense, and this is not a recent development but a factor that has been decades in the making,” the expert said.

Addressing the hopes some Armenians place on the Strategic Partnership Agreement signed shortly before Donald Trump assumed office in the United States, Kotenok cautioned against unrealistic expectations.

“You know, Trump is a pragmatist. I would not place such serious and great hopes on this Agreement. Some in Armenian society may have some hopes that a strategic partnership with the United States will secure Armenia and curb the appetites of those very regional neighbors who want to bite off something. But that will not happen,” the military observer concluded.