Baku dreams of Armenia quitting CSTO — Dmitry Rodionov 

 
Speaking with Alpha News, Dmitry Rodionov, Director at the Center for Geopolitical Research of the Institute for Innovative Development, commented on the absence of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the informal summit of CIS leaders, Armenian-Russian relations, and the prospect of signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

According to the expert, by his absence at the informal summit of CIS leaders, Pashinyan makes it clear that he is not interested in it.

“The question arises why Pashinyan can attend the EAEU summit via video link but not the CIS summit. This is such a demonstrative gesture. He not only does not participate in it; he makes it clear that he does not care about it; he is not interested in it. But he cannot say, of course, directly that he does not need the CIS; Armenia is quitting, so he sends signals like this. Of course, the CIS is more of a symbolic format, but no one is going to quit it. The EAEU is a completely different matter. For Armenia, the EAEU means money, market, preferential goods, and preferential prices for such vital things as gas and oil from Russia and preferential loans. It is clear that Armenia cannot exist without the EAEU.

It should be understood that, by and large, Armenia receives a lot from the EAEU but gives very little to it. It receives more than every other individual country and gives less there due to, in fact, a smaller economy,” Rodionov said.

According to the political scientist, Baku is dreaming of Armenia quitting the CSTO.

“Pashinyan said that this year they may consider the issue of European integration. But it is clear that he does not believe it himself, and it is unclear who this statement is intended for. But we ourselves are well aware that we cannot expect this either this year or next year. They can promise for decades. For example, Turkey will soon be celebrating 30 years of being told lies about European integration and a bright European future. The same thing will happen with Armenia.

Armenia, of course, has zero chances. They understand this very well, and Pashinyan understands this very well. And that is why he does not actively seek the withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. He periodically recalls this, makes some statements, but he understands perfectly well that if he does it now, it is, first of all, a threat to the national security of the country, because Baku is dreaming of Armenia quitting the CSTO so that no one has any obligations to protect it,” Rodionov said.

According to the expert, people like Pashinyan come and go, but the relationship between Armenia and Russia should be preserved.

“Russia does not perceive Pashinyan’s outbursts as a change in Armenia’s policy. Russia believes that Armenia is an important country in all our common integration formats. The Armenian people are close to the Russian people. People like Pashinyan come and go, but the relationship between Armenia and Russia should be preserved. Pashinyan is trying to maneuver between the West and Russia, that is, to get some benefits for himself both here and there.

And along the way, he is kind of blackmailing us. This situation has been going on for several years now, and it will probably last until one of the external players simply gets very tired of it. Perhaps it will be the West that will tell Pashinyan that it did not bring him to power for him to have it both ways and he should start doing what is required of him,” Rodionov concluded.

During the interview, the expert also commented on the prospect of signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey’s statement on the so-called “Zangezur corridor”.