Change of power in Iran is possible if army shifts its stance and declares neutrality, says political scientist

Carrying out a “Maduro‑2” type operation against Iran is unlikely, given the size and potential of the Islamic Republic, political scientist Robert Margaryan told AlphaNews.

“Iran is a large country, and conducting an operation similar to what happened in Venezuela is not so easy,” he noted, while not ruling out the possibility of limited military steps or non‑military pressure mechanisms through political messages and international influence.

Margaryan suggested that the United States might attempt to legitimize Reza Pahlavi by presenting him as an opposition leader.

“For example, inviting Pahlavi to the White House, meeting with him, and legitimizing him as an opposition figure could create serious problems for Iran on the international stage,” he emphasized.

At the same time, he added that it is necessary to wait for possible moves by US President Donald Trump.

“It is not that the issue is considered closed. Some steps will definitely be taken; it is just difficult to predict what kind right now.”

Commenting on Reza Pahlavi’s calls to overthrow the Islamic Republic, Margaryan stressed that he does not see him as Iran’s future leader.

“Personally, I do not see Reza Pahlavi as the kind of figure who could lead such a country,” he said, adding that Pahlavi’s role is mainly used to bring people into the streets and exert pressure on the authorities.

The political scientist recalled the experience of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, highlighting the role of the army.

“The revolution succeeded when the army declared neutrality and refused to carry out the authorities’ orders,” Margaryan emphasized, adding that “if today in Iran the army refuses to follow orders and stands with the people, one could say the movement will achieve its goal.”

At the same time, the political scientist expressed sorrow over civilian casualties.

“Unfortunately, the people are suffering. In the Armenian community we already have one dead and four seriously wounded,” Margaryan reported, stressing that these are the confirmed figures at present.