Everything is heading towards large-scale war — Abbas Juma on Lebanese-Israeli conflict

Speaking with Alpha News, international journalist Abbas Juma commented on the possibility of a new major war in the Middle East and how events in Palestine and Lebanon could impact the South Caucasus region.

According to the expert, Israel’s actions in Lebanon so far indicate that it is preparing a major escalation in the Middle East.

“No matter how much the American Democratic administration would like to stop Israel now, no matter how much it puts pressure on the Israeli leadership, everything is really heading towards escalation, towards a large-scale war. Indeed, equipment is accumulating (at the border of Lebanon – ed.). And military logic dictates that a ground operation is about to begin. Otherwise, what was the purpose of this ‘pager’ terror? What was the purpose of this elimination of the Hezbollah leadership?

Now everyone is waiting for Hezbollah’s response, for Iran’s response. It is a fact that Israel does not want to stop. Israel is talking about it both rhetorically and in action. Everyone in Iran understands this, but now we are talking about an existential conflict, a war that must be won. Moreover, it must be won once and for all. It will be impossible for Iran to achieve victory by starting a large-scale war now.

However, Russia is a different thing. Yes, we have clashed with NATO, we have clashed with virtually the entire civilized world, but we are a nuclear power. We are a country that recently updated its nuclear doctrine. And this nuclear parity—no matter what anyone says—works. No matter how much they snap at us, saying that Russia is bragging about its nuclear weapons, that this is nuclear blackmail, and so on, we must admit the obvious. The presence of nuclear weapons is a guarantee of security.

Today, Iran has no such guarantee. Today. God alone knows what will happen tomorrow. So, Iran understands this very well. And I suspect that proxy groups have been cultivated for decades not to fight directly themselves. This scenario cannot be ruled out, especially since Iran recently demonstrated that the option of a direct attack is unlocked. Iran launched its first strike and used hypersonic missiles, thereby showing that it can do this too. The tactic of wearing down the enemy is present and works. As far as I understand, Iran will adhere to it to the last, until Israel puts Iran in a position where there is nothing left but to fight,” Juma said.

“Israel was considered the best of the best. It was believed that the Israeli army could put anyone in their place, that it was the strongest army in the region, one of the strongest in the world. After October 7, the whole world saw that this was not so. A collapse of illusions occurred. They lost their foundation, the myth of invincibility, of infallibility. Iran is a wise civilization. Iranians are playing the long game. If there is even the slightest chance that the situation can be resolved without falling into the abyss of the third world war, they will use this chance,” Juma added.