For EU, Armenia is tool of pressure on Russia — Alexander Semchenko

Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Alexander Semchenko commented on the Armenian parliament’s recent adoption of a bill, in its second and final reading, marking the beginning of Armenia’s accession to the EU, and also potential outcomes of mass protests in Turkey.

“We can draw a parallel with the events of 2013, when Ukraine was making similar moves towards the EU. Ukraine then went further than Armenia has now, because this Armenian bill is about nothing at all, it has no meaning for the EU. They declared, but in fact nothing will happen. Back then, Russia responded to Ukraine, including with trade and customs wars—battles that were quite detrimental to the Ukrainian economy. Russia was Ukraine’s largest trading partner and it all ended badly for Ukrainian enterprises. Many of them suffered losses, jobs were cut. As a result, it was Ukraine that suffered losses first and foremost.

Russia can do the same with Armenia. And for Armenia, perhaps, it will be even more dangerous than for Ukraine. Firstly, due to the fact that Russia occupies an even larger share in Armenia’s trade balance than it did in Ukraine before the Maidan. Secondly, Armenia still has a smaller economic base than Ukraine. And its ability to survive on its own resources is virtually non-existent, unlike Ukraine. In essence, this is the destruction of the country over a fairly short period, but if we measure it on a historical scale, then 10-15 years and go erase your Armenia from the map,” Semchenko noted.

According to the expert, Armenia holds no value for the EU but is simply a tool of pressure on Russia.

“Armenia is not even a resource base. That is, the European Union has no particular interest in Armenia, its only interest is to somehow block Russia’s interests in the Transcaucasia. Here, again, Armenia is not a value in itself but simply a tool of pressure on Russia,” Semchenko said.

Speaking about the situation in Turkey and the protests against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the expert noted that any tyranny leads to an uprising.

“I am not sure that the situation in Turkey is ripe for a revolution. Erdogan has organized the suppression of the opposition quite skillfully, I think that Erdogan will cope with them, I would not expect any sudden movements now. But any tyranny leads to an uprising. Ultimately, an organizing force appears and carries out a revolution. Turkey has its own problems, there is quite high inflation, and there is instability with the financial sector. Istanbul is a large city, and there are quite a lot of people living below the poverty line. They really do not have the opportunity to survive under current conditions. People live on one, two, or three loans. People do not have work,” Semchenko concluded.