Fyodor Gaida: The ball is in the court of the Armenian authorities

In an interview with Alpha News, Fyodor Gaida, Lomonosov Moscow State University associate professor, has noted that Russia does not intend to change any contractual relations with Armenia.

“Russia is not leaving the South Caucasus and does not plan to leave, there is no reason for this. There are two states – Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia recognizes, and in which Russia has military bases. These military bases are located very close to Tbilisi and thus ensure the Russian political and military presence in the South Caucasus.

But another thing is that now we are talking about how relations between Russia and Armenia will be built. I would say that the main initiator of a possible change will be Armenia, because Russia does not envisage changing any contractual relations. These changes are assumed by the current leadership of Armenia, and these relations, as is known, did not include Karabakh. This is a completely different situation.

Armenia itself, as you know, did not officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as a state, and recognized it as part of Azerbaijan. Actually, according to the international situation, Russia had the same position.

Accordingly, after the previous war, the agreements between the Russian President and Azerbaijan on Karabakh led to the fact that Karabakh was in fact divided into two zones of influence. The southern part was given to Azerbaijan, and Russian peacekeepers entered the northern part. They are still there.

They went there in order to ensure the safety of the local Armenian population. What will happen next to the peacekeepers if the local Armenian population completely leaves Karabakh? In general, the question now arises of what the future status of the peacekeepers will be and what Russia and Azerbaijan will agree on next.

However, the most important issue is Russian-Armenian relations.

If Armenia wants to reorient itself, say, to some other powers that have interests in this region, there comes the question of who will continue to defend Armenia? If, let’s say, at the request of Armenia, or rather, at the request of the Armenian government, Russia is leaving. Will the United States, for example, defend Armenia from its own NATO ally, which is Turkiye, and Azerbaijan, which is closely connected with Turkiye.

Whether Iran will defend Armenia is also a good question. And Iran, as it seems to me, one way or another, coordinates its regional policy with Russia. In any case, it is beneficial for both Iran and Russia to coordinate this policy.

Ultimately, no matter how strange it may seem, now the ball is in the court of the Armenian authorities,” Gaida noted.