If TRIPP is implemented in violation of Armenia’s sovereignty, it will be dead end – Alexey Anpilogov

Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Alexey Anpilogov commented on the joint statement issued by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the framework for the implementation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project and how Russia might perceive it.

“The ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,’ known as TRIPP, is undoubtedly a project that primarily advances the foreign policy interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Let me remind you that the essence of this route is to unblock transit through Armenia’s Syunik Province, also known in logistical terms as the ‘Zangezur corridor.’ This is where the main conflict lies, shaping how the project is approached. If we are talking about mutually unblocking logistics routes on an equal basis, respecting the sovereignty of all participating countries, including Turkey, Russia, and Armenia, then the following scenario is possible. Russia would then be able to unblock a similar railway connection through Azerbaijan. Armenia, provided its sovereignty is respected, would gain access to the Caspian Sea—possibly through Turkey—as well as access to the world’s oceans through the Mediterranean. This approach could be one option for resolving the existing contradictions.

Just as Armenia needs territorial access to the oceans—through Turkey, for example, and Azerbaijan for the Caspian Sea—some geographic solution is required. Similarly, Azerbaijan needs to connect its two enclaves by land, namely the mainland and Nakhichevan. On the other hand, if this project is implemented at the expense of Armenia’s sovereignty, then, in my view, it is a dead end, because in that case, all the revanchist forces in Baku, who refer to Armenia only as the Erivan Khanate, would gain a serious advantage, enabling them to push for further restrictions on Armenian sovereignty,” Anpilogov said.

According to Anpilogov, Russia’s position on this route will depend on a number of political issues related to the choice between sovereignty and dependence on the Turkic states of the South Caucasus.

“Therefore, in my view, Russia certainly supports this TRIPP project, but only in the first scenario, if Armenia remains a sovereign player independent of other external power centers. But if Armenia becomes deeply dependent on Azerbaijan and, essentially, Turkey, which stands behind it, then I believe the ‘Zangezur corridor’ won’t be the only issue. Such an alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan will not simply exploit this logistical corridor, but will use it to further restrict and then, ultimately, dare I say it, effectively destroy Armenia’s sovereignty. This, of course, is a very negative scenario, which could in some ways repeat the tragedy that befell Armenian Artsakh,” the expert concluded.