Iran understands that Pashinyan should not be trusted — Alexander Semchenko

Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Alexander Semchenko commented on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that Yerevan will not participate in possible Western actions against Tehran, Armenia’s expectations from a strategic partnership with the United States, Turkey’s position on the South Caucasus, and the crisis in relations between Azerbaijan and Russia.

“I believe that Iran, on the one hand, understands that Pashinyan should not be trusted, and on the other hand, Armenia is not such a significant actor to seriously influence the situation. Iran is in a fairly dense hostile environment along almost the entire perimeter of its border. There is the same Azerbaijan, which borders Iran and does not show loyalty. And the attacks on Iran from Israel, which, according to some reports, were coordinated from Azerbaijan’s territory, are evidence of this. As for Turkey, there is a centuries-old war between Turkey and Iran.

They do not have a direct border, but there is support from Azerbaijan. There is also tension in relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan, so Armenia is not Iran’s biggest problem here. But in any case, Iran understands the value of Pashinyan’s words. Pashinyan has repeatedly demonstrated this to both the people of Armenia and Russia. The Iranians are very good at learning from the mistakes of others,” Semchenko said.

Speaking about Armenia’s expectations regarding the strategic agreement with the US, the expert noted that if the US needs Turkey, it will hand over Armenia to the Turks.

“The Americans are extremely pragmatic and act solely from their own interests. The Americans have a strong ally in the region, Turkey, and Turkey’s relations with Armenia, to say the least, are not very good. The Americans are building some balances as long as it is beneficial to them. But if Turkey takes a tough, uncompromising position, the Americans will give up Armenians. The States will proceed from their own interests and if they really need Turkey, the US will hand over Armenia to the Turks,” Semchenko noted.

Touching upon the Turkish president’s statement that Ankara wants a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku to be concluded as soon as possible, the expert noted that Erdogan wants to consolidate the victory to move forward in implementing his plans.

“This peace agreement is Erdogan’s brainchild. Without Turkey’s help, the occupation of Karabakh would have been impossible. Turkey has its own views on how the country should look and develop. Erdogan has repeatedly hinted at the revival of the Ottoman Empire, the creation of Grand Turan. He has great ambitions, and the end of the Karabakh situation will allow him to consolidate his victory and move forward in implementing his plans,” Semchenko said.

According to the expert, tensions in relations between Baku and Moscow will grow.

“I believe that tensions will grow, Aliyev has placed his bet on Turkey. This is not a very smart bet. Turks have their own goals and objectives. Azerbaijan has a difficult situation because, on the one hand, there is Turkey, on the other hand, there is Iran. Azerbaijan has certain territorial claims to Iran, and Iran also has something to remember regarding territorial claims to Baku. And the only one who can guarantee the identity of the Azerbaijani people is Russia. I believe that for Azerbaijan, good relations with Russia have not lost their value. They have lost their value specifically for Aliyev and the Azerbaijani elites,” Semchenko concluded.