Iran’s position is quite weak – Nikolay Kozhanov

Speaking with Alpha News, Research Associate Professor at the Gulf Studies Center (GSC) of Qatar University Nikolay Kozhanov commented on Iran’s position regarding the signing of a peace declaration between Baku and Yerevan.

According to the expert, the agreements reached between Yerevan and Baku in the United States are viewed with considerable caution by Iran.

“It is natural that for Iran, especially in the context of the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, the agreements that were reached in the trilateral format are perceived with considerable caution. Tehran sees this, among other things, as a threat to its interests, given that the same Americans may gain even greater access to the South Caucasus region. The exchange of delegations between Armenia and Iran is quite understandable, because it is very important for Yerevan to calm the Iranians and show that, in principle, Iran remains one of Armenia’s partners. I believe Yerevan will continue to balance its interests and maintain its partnership with Iran, at least in terms of its fairly significant role in a broader regional context. Although, of course, Iran has now weakened in many ways, and this weakening is caused by the consequences of the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, this twelve-day war. Therefore, Iran is now focusing, first of all, on the need to restore its role in a deeper regional context,” Kozhanov said.

According to the expert, Iran will be forced to accept the agreements between Yerevan and Baku in the United States as a reality.

“It is enough to simply ask one question. What can Iran really oppose to this project at the moment? Almost nothing. This is perceived in Iran as a kind of confirmation that its position is now quite weak. We are already hearing quite loud statements coming from Tehran, but this should be perceived in the context of traditional Iranian foreign policy behavior—if you cannot stop something, then at least make noise about it and present a serious front. The concept of preserving Iranian face is now very clearly evident. The consequences of these agreements will echo for a very long time. Now Iran will continue to actively analyze why this became possible. And in addition to the conclusions that directly concern Iran itself, conclusions will be made regarding the behavior of Iranian partners. In Iran, for example, there was very strong criticism of Russian approaches to the corridor issue, and in fact, accusations were made that Russia, for the sake of its own benefits in relations with the United States and other regional powers, is trying to play against the interests of Iran,” Kozhanov concluded.