Likelihood of Russia-Europe clash increasing with each passing day – Ekaterina Entina

Ekaterina Entina, Director of the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics and Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented to Alpha News on the possibility of a direct military clash between Russia and Europe during the 18th Verona Eurasian Economic Forum in Istanbul.

“As of today, the likelihood of a real clash is increasing with each passing day due to objective circumstances. These circumstances are not primarily related to assessments of Europe’s readiness—or lack thereof—for a real war. Of course, today the Russian army is one of the few, if not the only one, that has experienced and is experiencing the crucible of real large-scale modern military operations. In this sense, we are significantly more prepared. But we must also soberly assess what is happening, as they say, ‘on the other side.’

Under the Lisbon Treaty of 2009, the EU became not only an integration association but also a military-political union. For decades, it failed to stimulate integration and cooperation in the military-political sphere in any way. The first step that allowed them to begin taking concrete action was the return of Crimea to Russia in 2014. This triggered rapprochement in this area at the level of discourse, internal discussions, and negotiating positions. As we recall, the PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) program was launched in 2017, which envisions systemic and operational cooperation, joint development of scientific and technological development programs, and military R&D. However, it too remained relatively dormant until the events of 2022,” Entina said.

According to the expert, the longer military actions in Ukraine continues, the more the European Union’s military machine accelerates.

“It’s too early to make any specific assessments of where this will lead. But, in principle, everything is moving toward what the Germans have long sought: to lead the EU’s military-strategic, military-political, and defense apparatus, thereby building another wing of its leadership. In this sense, Germany is prepared to make virtually any investment and take any steps to convince its EU partners of the need for such a step,” Entina said.

She further noted that European rhetoric about a potential clash with Russia serves both domestic and foreign policy interests.

“This is a major step toward deepening integration, effectively creating a superstate—something the EU, at least in Berlin’s eyes, has long been striving for. But there’s also an external context: the context of Euro-Atlantic relations, where the EU, as an integration association, would like to cease being Washington’s ‘little brother,’ while at the same time not significantly altering its spending commitments to the North Atlantic Alliance, which remains Washington’s primary instrument,” she concluded.