‘Nature abhors a vacuum’: political scientist on Armenia’s search for new allies

Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Denis Denisov commented on the statement of Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan that Armenia is looking for new allies to solve security problems.

According to the political scientist, in the current geopolitical conditions, Armenia is forced to look for its place.

“We understand perfectly well that in the current geopolitical conditions—in the newly built security structure both in the South Caucasus and globally—Armenia is forced to look for its place. The conflicts that have occurred since 2020, which have entailed systemic changes in the South Caucasus, imply that such statements will continue to be made and, in addition, they will be followed by real actions.

On the one hand, representatives of the Armenian political elite are currently making harsh statements regarding Russia, but on the other hand, this is quite logical, because over the past four years of crisis, Armenia realized that it cannot fully count on either the support of Russia, which has its own interests, or on collective security organizations such as the CSTO,” the political scientist said.

“It should be noted that if the Armenian political elite were pro-Russian, these claims could have been justified, but the current political elite is clearly anti-Russian, so it is rather strange to demand additional efforts from Russia to ensure the security of Armenia,” Denisov noted.

Speaking about Russia’s attitude towards such statements, the expert noted that this cannot but cause concern and justifiable criticism in Moscow.

“Official Moscow finds such statements from Armenia concerning, and, moreover, these statements are justifiably criticized since Armenia is a traditional strategic partner of the Russian Federation, a friendly state. Keep in mind that Armenia is connected with Russia by historical context, shared memory, and economic and political ties. Russia has played a key role for Armenia over the past few centuries. But everything is changing. And Russia needs to take the most balanced approach to assessing such statements and actions. It needs to proceed from its own national interests, from its strategy for the South Caucasus, and build its own policy,” the political scientist noted.

According to Denisov, Russia itself has largely contributed to ensuring that Armenia has a non-pro-Russian policy.

“We can state that there is no pro-Russian political elite in Armenia. Another thing is that Russia itself largely contributed to the emergence of such a political configuration in Armenia. The new configuration requires a new policy,” Denisov said.

As for Armenia’s plans to find new allies, everything is based on the principle that “nature abhors a vacuum,” the political scientist noted.

“We understand that within the framework of the global confrontation in the West, the Armenian state will definitely have allies. These allies will be, first of all, interested in using Armenia against Russia. This is not the first example among post-Soviet countries. It happened to the Baltic states and Ukraine as well. So, a new source of tension, a new instrument of influence on Russia will be a blessing for the West, especially for Russia’s key competitor, the United States. In this regard, the investments that may follow can be very significant and seriously affect the situation within Armenia and in the South Caucasus as a whole,” Denisov concluded.