OSCE Minsk Group’s ineffectiveness may bolster opposition sentiments in Armenia, says political scientist

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist Vasily Koltashov commented on the statement by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova that the OSCE Minsk Group, which was dealing with the resolution to the Karabakh problem, has lost its relevance.

“Another crisis has emerged in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations and in the mediation in these relations, as Maria Zakharova pointed out when she said that the OSCE Minsk Group has lost its relevance. Well, this aligns with what they say in Azerbaijan. In essence, this means that the diplomatic game of the Armenian government, the government of Nikol Pashinyan, has entered a new crisis. While this diplomacy has skillfully navigated several challenges—particularly in terms of reputation and politics, as evidenced by Pashinyan’s party winning the elections, effectively absolving diplomatic difficulties—there is now a real possibility that the OSCE’s ineffectiveness will bolster opposition sentiments in Armenia,” he said.

According to the political scientist, the victory of the opposition candidate in Gyumri signals a significant shift.

“The fact that the opposition won in Gyumri, the second largest city in the republic, and an opposition representative became mayor, is evidence that a shift is not only possible but has already begun, especially since Azerbaijan has demonstrated its ability to eat Armenia up piece by piece: first negotiations, then pressure, then some incident on the border, then taking control of some other areas, a new settlement, new mediation, and new negotiations. Gradually it is possible to eat up all of Armenia quite calmly, which, by the way, does not even require military action by and large,” Koltashov said.

According to the expert, Pashinyan’s diplomacy with his Western mediators is not producing results.

“As for the Western powers, they look ridiculous when it comes to the discussion about joining the European Union. It seems to me that Armenian society is already beginning to realize that the situation is dire and that the narrative of a prosperous European lifestyle is nothing more than an illusion. In reality, there is no longer a good life in Europe. At the same time, Azerbaijan’s steady progress and the ineffectiveness of intermediary diplomacy, along with Pashinyan’s own diplomatic efforts, are failing to yield results,” Koltashov concluded.