Pashinyan is doing everything to provoke Moscow to break off relations – Vladimir Novikov

 
Speaking with Alpha News, Vladimir Novikov, Head of the Caucasus Department at Russia’s Institute of CIS Countries, on the crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, the prospects for Armenia’s European integration, as well as the negotiation process between Yerevan and Baku.

“Russian-Armenian relations have been going downhill for the past two years. This started around the end of 2022, when Mr. Pashinyan began to ignore the Russian leadership, and this downward spiral in relations intensified after the Karabakh disaster. Pashinyan used this entire situation to shift the blame from himself to Russia. He used the Russian factor as a lightning rod. Then we saw how Armenia was actually trying to diversify security issues and, in fact, began to reduce the presence of Russian security forces on Armenia’s territory. Plus, it started purchasing French and even Indian weapons systems.

All this suggests that the level of relations is being lowered, and even elements of conflict are emerging. It must be said that Mr. Pashinyan is doing everything in a very delicate manner. The displacement of Russian goods and Russian defense from the Armenian market is happening under the pretext that the special military operation is underway, and Russia cannot fulfill military-technical contracts in full. Pashinyan is doing everything to provoke Moscow to break off relations. He wants a break, but he does not want to be the formal initiator of this break, which is evident from the way he acts,” Novikov said.

Speaking about the process of European integration launched by the Armenian authorities, the expert stated that Pashinyan will try to have it both ways.

“I am afraid that Brussels will again promise Armenia a lot for breaking with Russia but will not actually give anything. It seems to me that Pashinyan will try to have it both ways because the EAEU really brings great profits to the Armenian economy and its growth. Pashinyan will try to provoke Moscow and other EAEU members to take drastic steps,” Novikov emphasized.

Touching upon a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, the expert said that Aliyev does not intend to stop at Karabakh.

“I believe Baku’s goal is not Karabakh, but to punch, possibly by force, a corridor to Nakhichevan. And it wants to do all this by military means. Therefore, no negotiating concessions are possible. And Armenia’s pro-Western vector could lead to losing Russia as an ally rather than making some major Western power its ally. In other words, it will lead to Armenia’s sagging in a very conflictual geopolitical context,” Novikov concluded.