Pashinyan to face growing public discontent in 2026 as Baku uses TRIPP for pressure – media

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in 2026 will face growing public discontent, mainly caused by alleged concessions to Azerbaijan and tense relations with the Armenian Apostolic Church, according to a forecast by Stratfor.

The report notes that Armenia and Azerbaijan will take moderate steps to implement the provisions of the 2025 framework peace agreement, which will reduce the risk of a new war between them. According to the center, trade regulation between the two countries will likely progress cautiously, with both sides building trust through limited trade interactions rather than comprehensive economic integration.

Domestically, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will face growing public discontent, mainly caused by alleged concessions to Azerbaijan and tense relations with the Armenian Apostolic Church. Pashinyan will likely postpone holding a referendum on constitutional changes until the June elections. If he is not re-elected, the fate of the peace agreement project will become uncertain. However, if he retains power after the vote, he will likely prioritize the implementation of the “Trump Route,” which is a central part of the joint declaration signed with the United States and Azerbaijan.

Baku, in turn, will complete construction of its section of the Araks Corridor, passing through Iran, in parallel with TRIPP, while simultaneously keeping TRIPP as leverage and an alternative that excludes Armenia from regional integration in case it refuses cooperation. Russia will attempt to challenge the development of TRIPP; however, the weakening of its position in the region will limit its ability to significantly obstruct the pivot of both Yerevan and Baku toward the West, Stratfor concludes.