Possible escalation around Iran could have consequences for entire world – Danila Gureyev

Political scientist Danila Gureyev spoke to Alpha News about the potential escalation in the Persian Gulf region and how it might impact the South Caucasus.

“The issue is quite complex because, unfortunately, there is no crystal ball to predict what will actually happen. If we look at relations between the current US administration and Iran, we shouldn’t expect much change. As part of a broader plan to preserve global hegemony, the US is indeed trying to eliminate all significant geopolitical rivals, and Iran has always been target number one.

First, since the Iraq war and the spread of color revolutions across the Middle East, Iran has remained the main target. Why? Because Iran has large oil reserves. Second, it occupies an extremely advantageous geographic position. And third, the US would prefer to see a more loyal regime there, similar to Saudi Arabia,” the expert said.

According to Gureyev, it is important to understand that Donald Trump often uses intimidation tactics.

“Iran is probably the most difficult state for the US from a geopolitical standpoint. It is a large country by territory. A quick landing operation, like in Venezuela, would not be possible. Iran has the means to respond, even in terms of missile weaponry. So, while we understand Trump’s geopolitical ambitions to eliminate the regime in Iran, we must also realize that he often employs intimidation tactics: creating military tension to force the opponent to accept US terms, thereby neutralizing conflict and gaining leverage without major effort. In this context, anything is possible—geopolitical pressure or even readiness to wage war to the end,” Gureyev emphasized.

Gureyev noted that although the South Caucasus is geographically distant from the epicenter of potential events, it could still be partially affected by economic and political processes if the conflict in Iran intensifies.