Aliyev is targeting Armenian statehood

Echoing Stratfor’s analysis (which often legalizes intelligence data), whose experts believe that no peace agreement will be signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has attacked official Yerevan with a new batch of threats.

Aliyev, in particular, noted that if Armenia does not need a peace agreement, Baku does not need it either. At the same time, he added that, in his opinion, “Armenia is a source of threat to the region.” “The independent Armenian state is actually a ‘fascist state,’” the Azerbaijani president said. He also stated the “inevitability” of the opening of the so-called “Zangezur corridor” and urged Yerevan not to create “geographical barriers” between his country and Turkey.

When the processes related to Azerbaijan’s demand to renounce the Armenian Declaration of Independence were actively taking place in Armenia, it was repeatedly noted that Azerbaijan was well aware that Armenia fought for Nagorno-Karabakh not because there was a mention of the Armenian Artsakh in its Declaration of Independence. On the contrary, Armenia fought for Nagorno-Karabakh for the right of Armenians to live in their historical homeland. It is for this reason that Artsakh was part of the Armenian Declaration of Independence. It was clear that Baku understood this and realized that its fight should be directed not against a document but against the country whose economic, military, political, and geopolitical support allowed Artsakh to establish itself as a state. Aliyev’s threats regarding the unacceptability of the existence of an independent Armenian state are precisely about this. Aliyev’s parallel statement about the upcoming meeting of the two countries’ delimitation commissions suggests that Baku intends to start 2025 with another territorial acquisition at the expense of Armenia, and all this will be called “delimitation.”

Now it is important to understand how, conceptually, Armenia will react to Aliyev’s threats. If everything is limited to an interview with Nikol Pashinyan (in which he justified Aliyev’s thesis that Armenia is a “fascist state”, noting that a similar perception of Azerbaijan exists in Armenia, and that it was these mutual perceptions that led to the long-term conflict), or a press conference by Ararat Mirzoyan, who in the current circumstances found nothing better than to say that Armenia wants to be a link between Azerbaijan and Turkey and also announced the potential withdrawal of Russian border guards from the Armenian-Turkish border, or the publication of the entire set of documents on the Karabakh issue (as announced by one of Pashinyan’s media), it will become clear that there will be no meaningful response from Pashinyan. And it will become obvious that he is preparing another political alibi for the upcoming territorial concessions or a potential military conflict.

If we assume that Pashinyan will really try to give a substantive answer and try to restore the military-political balance between Yerevan and Baku (only this can stop Azerbaijan from attacking Armenia today), will he have the competencies to do so? All the years since 2018 have shown that neither Pashinyan nor his team has any competencies…

Think about it…