Aliyev sees Putin as a threat to his power

What is happening in Russian-Azerbaijani relations? This is not a trivial question: the realities of Moscow-Baku relations significantly affect the ability to manage security risks in the South Caucasus. This issue was addressed today by Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

“Russia highly values the outcome of the bilateral meeting between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe. It was a very important meeting in terms of turning the page of our bilateral relations. Now, meticulous work is underway. The president raised all these sensitive issues, and they are being addressed at the working level,” Peskov said.

At first glance, Peskov’s statement suggests a warming of relations between Moscow and Baku. However, a closer look reveals that it is premature to speak of overcoming the crisis between the two states.

Rumors of a coup attempt by former head of the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration Ramiz Mehdiyev (who served from 1995 to 2019) began circulating in the media in late October 2025, after the Putin-Aliyev meeting. The 87-year-old academic was accused of “treason” and “violent seizure of power.” The centerpiece of the alleged conspiracy was a published letter titled “Proposals for Reforming State Governance,” which Mehdiyev supposedly sent to Russia. Prosecutors claimed the letter outlined a plan to create a “State Council” of 50 people as an alternative power center.

This development is not only a move by the current leadership to eliminate remnants of the old political elite—embodied by Mehdiyev, to whom Aliyev owes his rise—but also a step toward distancing from Moscow, fueling anti-Russian sentiment in Azerbaijan.

Like Pashinyan, Aliyev sees Turkey as the external pillar of his legitimacy and views Russia as a threat to his power. Obviously, the deep contradictions between Moscow and Baku remain unresolved. After “dispelling the previous wave of hysteria against Russia,” Aliyev and Pashinyan traveled to Washington to “pay homage to the white master” Donald Trump, believing it was the right moment when Russia could not influence regional realities. Following the annexation of Artsakh, Aliyev believes he no longer needs to consider Moscow or Tehran when setting foreign policy priorities and can use short anti-Iranian or anti-Russian campaigns to exclude them from regional processes. This suggests that the next wave of anti-Russian or anti-Iranian hysteria will coincide with a new phase in the Armenian-Azerbaijani process.

Future emotional outbursts by Aliyev toward Russia and Iran should be seen by Armenian citizens as a warning of an impending security crisis. The fundamental reason for the contradictions between Baku and Moscow is that Azerbaijan’s leadership has consciously (since 2014) surrendered its sovereignty, integrating not only into NATO structures but also into the Turan project, which threatens Russia, Iran, and of course, Armenia. In the Turan framework, there is no place for Christian states or peoples.

Under different circumstances, Yerevan could have joined forces with Tehran and Moscow to counter this shared threat. But Pashinyan chose to integrate into the Turan camp without security guarantees for Armenia, bringing the country closer to another existential crisis.

Think about it…